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David Cameron once said Dominic Cummings was a ‘career psychopath’, here’s further proof for David Cameron’s assertion.

David Cameron once said Dominic Cummings was a ‘career psychopath’, here’s further proof for David Cameron’s assertion.

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In the world of politics perceptions occasionally matter more than reality, as the below tweet shows Dominic Cummings totally misunderstood things. Why this is crucial is that it will feed a narrative that the Conservatives are callous and anyone who feels a close family member of friend was sacrificed because of the strategic blunders by Dominic Cummings has the potential to reap an electoral whirlwind for the Conservative Party that they may never recover from. This also confirms the hunch…

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The current big UK betting market: Who’ll be next Shadow Chancellor?

The current big UK betting market: Who’ll be next Shadow Chancellor?

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This market from Ladbrokes about who will succeed John McDonnell as Shadow Chancellor is an intriguing market. I’m working on the assumption that Sir Keir Starmer wins the Labour leadership quite comfortably which gives him plenty of latitude in who to choose. I’m ruling out anyone who is in the Deputy Leader race as I think they’ll end up focussing on that role exclusively. I’m ruling out Rebecca Long Bailey because I have a hunch that Starmer wants to move…

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After the fall

After the fall

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If shrunk to a comparable size, the earth would be smoother than a ping pong ball.  The earth’s atmosphere is thinner than the skin on a ping pong ball. Most of the time we forget how much our whole life is lived in a tiny margin and how dependent we are on its seeming stability. Life does not feel stable now.  Whole countries are being quarantined, the banalities of international travel are shuddering to a halt.  In War Of The…

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Herd immunity. The big political risk the government is running

Herd immunity. The big political risk the government is running

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Amid all the panic buying, one thing that is still found in abundance is self-declared expertise. Social media is suddenly awash with new immunologists and virologists (BSc Twitter), all very ready to critique or bolster the government’s approach to the Covid-19 crisis. Is the government aiming for herd immunity? Should the government be aiming for herd immunity? What timeframe should we expect herd immunity in? Let me draw on my own area of expertise as a pensions lawyer. For if…

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Swing for the moment. How the country shifted at GE2019

Swing for the moment. How the country shifted at GE2019

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The Conservatives won the 2019 election decisively.  Received wisdom has it that it was won by demolishing a red wall in the north of England.  Let’s take a look at how each constituency swung, seat by seat. Before the election, I posed some questions.  One of them was whether seats would continue to sort by Leave/Remain or whether they would now swing more uniformly.  It turns out that the answer is a bit more complicated than either of those answers….

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What will be the name of the Boris Johnson’s baby?

What will be the name of the Boris Johnson’s baby?

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Ladbrokes have this market on the name of the baby Carrie Symonds will give birth to later this year and quite frankly this seems like a brilliant way to contribute to the Christmas bonus fund for Ladbrokes politics team. Whilst the screenshot at the top of this article doesn’t show the full list there’s nothing that sounds truly appealing, especially given we do not know the gender of the baby which will eliminate around fifty per cent of the names…

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Don’t fear the reaper. How Covid-19 will change us

Don’t fear the reaper. How Covid-19 will change us

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It’s coming. A month ago, Covid-19 was just a news story from China. No longer. It is rife in Iran and Italy, the USA seems barely to have a handle on the scale of the problem it is facing and there have been cases on six continents.  Britain has had its first deaths from the disease. It is practically certain to see many more. There is good news.  It doesn’t seem as though we’re all going to die.  Not of Covid-19…

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Priti Vacant? Who will be next out of the cabinet

Priti Vacant? Who will be next out of the cabinet

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This market from Ladbrokes is an interesting one. Priti Patel who previously was a ‘winner’ in this market when in 2017 she had to resign in disgrace when she deludedly thought she was Foreign Secretary is the favourite in this market, at 1/1 evens I’m not remotely interested at those odds. For me the interesting one is the DEFRA Secretary George Eustice at 12/1 who has had a sub-optimal few days as the following thread by Jim Pickard shows, and…

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