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Author: TSE

From a betting perspective the dangers of “fighting the last war”

From a betting perspective the dangers of “fighting the last war”

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On Boxing Day last year, a fortnight after the Tories won an 80 seat majority, a delighted family friend declared over lunch “I couldn’t believe the result. Politics has been so unpredictable, and no-one thought Boris would win big!” He was wrong, but not completely. Despite double-digit poll leads the media had speculated about hung parliaments a hell of a lot and the betting markets had the Tories as surprisingly modest favourites. Longer than 1/2 on a majority of any…

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Get well soon, Prime Minister

Get well soon, Prime Minister

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Six words brought down a Prime Minister: “Don’t you think she looks tired?” Alright, she was the entirely fictional Prime Minister Harriet Jones in Doctor Who, but the point is a good one. Boris Johnson does not need the interference of a Time Lord for the public to be questioning his health. He looks terrible. For many years, he has traded off looking rumpled. He now looks dishevelled and haunted. Poor man. He succumbed to exactly the virus from which he was supposed to…

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Holyrood 2021: The election that could kill the Union stone dead?

Holyrood 2021: The election that could kill the Union stone dead?

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I’m genuinely looking forward to next year’s Holyrood election, 2011 and 2016 were really profitable elections thanks to Iain Grey’s dire ratings indicating a shellacking for Labour and in 2016 you could get 8/1 on the day of the election on the SNP not obtaining a majority, sometimes betting from distance gives a great perspective. On the political front this might be the most important election this decade, if the the SNP win a majority then it reinforces their mandate…

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Mawkish nursery games. It’s time to leave the Second World War in the history books

Mawkish nursery games. It’s time to leave the Second World War in the history books

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Sir Winston Churchill died in January 1965. He was accorded a state funeral, as befitted the man who embodied Britain’s struggle in the Second World War, and the country poured out its emotion for a giant of the age.  An album of his speeches even made the top ten.  His death marked the end of an era. Except it didn’t. As the years went by, British veneration of those who fought in that war only grew. “Their finest hour” became our foundation…

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A knighthood for Colonel Tom Moore?

A knighthood for Colonel Tom Moore?

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During this pandemic one of the most uplifting moments has been the now promoted Colonel Tom Moore raising millions for the NHS at age of 99 now 100. He’s been an inspiration to us all as evidenced by the thirty million plus pounds raised and him becoming the oldest person to feature in a UK number one single. As noted above he’s been honoured with a promotion from captain to honorary colonel but I wonder if he’ll be awarded a…

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Jumping at shadows

Jumping at shadows

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April is the cruellest month. At least, that is what the authorities hope. The government has carefully signalled that it intends to begin a slow relaxation of the lockdown, if Britain continues to move out of its total eclipse by Covid-19 into a penumbral recuperation from the most ferocious aspects of its onslaught. The government has to wrestle with two conflicting risks when making its decision. If Britain comes out of lockdown too early, it might risk a resurgence of Covid-19. If it waits…

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Conducting elections with the great unwashed during and after a pandemic

Conducting elections with the great unwashed during and after a pandemic

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I’ve seen the future and it’s a world with mostly digital campaigning and only online voting As someone who expects Covid-19 and variants to be with us for at least the near future our lives we will have to adapt to prevent other pandemics and peaks and for election geeks like ourselves that means changes to how campaigns and voting are conducted, because the relentless optimist that I am I fear pandemics are here to stay. Campaigning – Like the…

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Splendid self-isolation. The lack of realism infecting British foreign policy

Splendid self-isolation. The lack of realism infecting British foreign policy

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https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1253976187887669249 Play it again Sam. The piano is battered but the tune is very familiar. This time it is China that is the focus of the hostility. It’s too big, too powerful, too inscrutable and too responsible for the Covid-19 pandemic. The John Bull tendency has decided that there must be consequences. There must be boycotts. China must be made an international pariah. The Huawei 5G contract assuredly must be ripped up. There must be a reckoning. You must remember this refrain. Those furious with China now were in…

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