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Author: TSE

Motes and beams. Leading a response to a pandemic without moral authority

Motes and beams. Leading a response to a pandemic without moral authority

So now we know: as in Pirates of the Caribbean, the rules of the C aren’t so much rules, they’re more what you’d call guidelines.  Robert Jenrick has confirmed that the public could always exercise “a degree of personal judgement”.   This will come as a considerable surprise to the 27million people who listened to Boris Johnson on 23 March: “give the British people a very simple instruction. You must stay at home, because the critical thing we must do to stop the disease spreading…

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Will Labour lead in a nationwide YouGov poll in 2020?

Will Labour lead in a nationwide YouGov poll in 2020?

This market by Ladbrokes on Labour leading in a UK wide Westminster voting intention poll is an intriguing one, the most recent YouGov poll had the Conservatives 15% ahead, during the first phase of the pandemic that lead peaked at 24%, prior to the pandemic that lead was around the early 20s, so it is fair to say the Conservatives lead with YouGov has been consistently high. So what chance of Labour leading in a YouGov poll this year? The…

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There’s been definite damage to Boris Johnson in the polls following Dominic’s Cummings and Goings

There’s been definite damage to Boris Johnson in the polls following Dominic’s Cummings and Goings

The last time I saw a Prime Minister needlessly trash their reputation like this was in the autumn of 2007 when Gordon Brown denied he had been planning on holding a snap election. Even one of his MPs wrote ‘Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority’, such a denial of reality damaged Brown’s ratings and they never really recovered which saw Labour lose power and they haven’t been in power since. These rapid falls…

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Wear and tear. The fate of Dominic Cummings

Wear and tear. The fate of Dominic Cummings

We become what we hate, so yogis tell us. For Dominic Cummings, son-in-law of a baronet and nephew of a judge, the transition to unelected and unaccountable metropolitan elitist was a short journey. The Prime Minister has thrown his weight behind him for now and the Cabinet were dutifully tweeting on behalf of a devoted family man who felt the compelling need to drive the length of the country to self-isolate in his other home. Will this last?   The answer may depend…

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Vice President nominee betting. A market that it is better to lay than back

Vice President nominee betting. A market that it is better to lay than back

If there’s one market that I usually avoid it is the Vice Presidential nominee markets, I couldn’t tip more rubbish if you give me a forklift truck and I’m not alone as punters are determined to give the politics team at Ladbrokes a very nice Christmas bonus by pushing the price of Michelle Obama as the Veep pick down to 10/1. One of the reasons I avoid this market is that there’s a history of the successful candidate coming from…

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From a betting perspective the dangers of “fighting the last war”

From a betting perspective the dangers of “fighting the last war”

On Boxing Day last year, a fortnight after the Tories won an 80 seat majority, a delighted family friend declared over lunch “I couldn’t believe the result. Politics has been so unpredictable, and no-one thought Boris would win big!” He was wrong, but not completely. Despite double-digit poll leads the media had speculated about hung parliaments a hell of a lot and the betting markets had the Tories as surprisingly modest favourites. Longer than 1/2 on a majority of any…

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Get well soon, Prime Minister

Get well soon, Prime Minister

Six words brought down a Prime Minister: “Don’t you think she looks tired?” Alright, she was the entirely fictional Prime Minister Harriet Jones in Doctor Who, but the point is a good one. Boris Johnson does not need the interference of a Time Lord for the public to be questioning his health. He looks terrible. For many years, he has traded off looking rumpled. He now looks dishevelled and haunted. Poor man. He succumbed to exactly the virus from which he was supposed to…

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Holyrood 2021: The election that could kill the Union stone dead?

Holyrood 2021: The election that could kill the Union stone dead?

I’m genuinely looking forward to next year’s Holyrood election, 2011 and 2016 were really profitable elections thanks to Iain Grey’s dire ratings indicating a shellacking for Labour and in 2016 you could get 8/1 on the day of the election on the SNP not obtaining a majority, sometimes betting from distance gives a great perspective. On the political front this might be the most important election this decade, if the the SNP win a majority then it reinforces their mandate…

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