Trump’s not having a very good day, but will it impact the election result? I’m not so sure
TSE
Scötterdämmerung. The Twilight of the Union?
If you’re a (Scottish) Unionist then it isn’t looking good, the tweets above indicate the worrying issues facing the Union right now. There’s some scope for hope, from this observer’s view it appears that debate is being framed as Scotland v. The Tories/Boris Johnson, with Scottish Labour and the Lib Dems absent from the debate. Once those parties join the debate we might see the arguments change. However relying on a party led by Richard Leonard to be the Gebhard…
Wedged: the looming problem for Boris Johnson
Boris Johnson’s government may be pretty incompetent at most things but you can’t fault its ability to sniff out a topic to rally its base to its side. The number of undocumented migrants crossing the English Channel does not begin to fill the gaps left by all those people who needlessly died with Covid-19 owing to the government’s negligence, but the government gleefully seized on a fresh opportunity to whip up its parochial white English nationalist base against those of duskier…
Even an overwhelming majority of Tory voters say the government have handled the student exam results badly
TSE
If there was a betting market on Williamson not being Education Secretary on New Year’s Day I know which side of the bet I’d be backing
TSE
Lesson from the Veepstakes
A guest slot from Pip Moss on what they’ve learned from betting on Joe Biden’s running mate With Biden’s search for a running mate being the focus of endless media speculation for several months now, it is tempting to be grateful it is over and move on. But before we do I am spending a moment coming up with my strategy for the 2024 Veepstakes, and I think you should too. Four years is a long time, and while it…
Some succour for Trump: Exactly four years ago today Betfair punters rated Hillary Clinton’s chances a lot higher than they do Joe Biden’s today
The chart atop this thread is from exactly four years ago showing that Betfair punters were effectively saying Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the 2016 election were 72%, as we can see in the chart below Biden’s chances are around 62%. I’ve written in the past the terrible predictive abilities of the betting markets when it comes to politics, perhaps we might see that again, after all on election night Hillary Clinton’s chances went north of 90%. Perhaps the value…
Some Trump (sore) loser bets
StarSports have some markets up on what Trump might do about the 2020 election. I’m not touching the 8/1 on the 2020 election not to take place given the constitutional and legal impediments make it close to impossible to delay the election, even if Trump had a pliable House and Senate. The likes of Mitch McConnell have made it clear they won’t back a delay to the election. The 3/1 on Trump losing the election and refusing to leave office…