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Author: TSE

If Trumps wins next month, it’s the economy, stupid

If Trumps wins next month, it’s the economy, stupid

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Looking at those key states, worth 55 electoral college votes that Trump won in 2016 it is understandable why people are talking now about a Biden victory but the size of it, but from those same polls there’s a sliver of optimism for Trump because the same polls that gives Biden hefty leads they also show this Now we’ve seen plenty of occasions across the world when the party leading the voting intention loses the election because they’ve trailed on…

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2024 vision. Some 66/1 and 50/1 tips to start off your Sunday

2024 vision. Some 66/1 and 50/1 tips to start off your Sunday

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It might seem odd that even before the 2020 election day that people would be betting on the 2024 race but it does give a chance to spot some value. Ladbrokes have a market up on who will win the 2024 Presidential election and on the Dem saide I’m quite taken with the 66/1 on Pete Buttigieg and 50/1 on Tom Cotton on the GOP side. If Biden loses next month his age alone must surely rule him out for…

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History Today. A brief recent history of when dead Americans win elections

History Today. A brief recent history of when dead Americans win elections

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Apropos of nothing, honest, I was reminded of two recent occasions when dead candidates won elections they were standing in. The most (in)famous was in 2000 when the recently deceased Mel Carnahan defeated the incumbent senator, John Ashcroft. A report at the time said Missouri voters narrowly elected their deceased governor, Mel Carnahan, to the Senate on Tuesday, making him the first person to win a Senate seat from the grave. In one of the most bizarre episodes in US…

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Some frightening polling from America

Some frightening polling from America

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Being a seasoned poll watcher occasionally you see some polling that shocks and disgusts you, for example when in 2017 a poll found 53% of Britons liked pineapple on pizza but this poll from America frightens me on so many levels, in a way no other poll ever has. 33% of of Democrats and 36% of Republicans feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals, a staggering fourfold increase in just over three years. For a while I’ve…

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This week’s most important polling analysis on the White House race

This week’s most important polling analysis on the White House race

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I’m very intrigued by this analysis by the New York Times, as seen in the tweets above, it probably explains the current prices on Betfair where Trump is very close to Biden. There’s always a danger of refighting the last war, as Elliott Morris acknowledges, but in 2012 the RCP nationwide polling average had Obama winning by 0.7% when in reality he ended up winning by 3.9%, if we see that kind of error then Biden’s looking at something close…

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The joy of six. How many of these states will Trump win?

The joy of six. How many of these states will Trump win?

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Ladbrokes have a super six market of states, of these six, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas, how many will Trump win. To be honest I’m not seeing any value here and see this as a market that will pay for the bonuses for those who compile the odds for markets like this. If you were to work out the accumulator odds for all individual six states to be won by Trump using the odds offered by Ladbrokes…

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Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on a 269 electoral college tie, should I take this bet?

Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on a 269 electoral college tie, should I take this bet?

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Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on there being an electoral college tie, by comparison Paddy Power are offering 33/1, I regard the Ladbrokes politics team led by Matthew Shaddick are the shrewdest political bookies out there, so this discrepancy caught my attention. There are a few routes to a 269 tie for example, ‘if Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nebraska’s 2nd District vote for Joe Biden rather than for Donald Trump as they did in 2016. Those shifts, if all other state outcomes…

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