politicalbetting.com

As someone who adores Shakespeare it has always been a source of glee that the winter of (our) discontent features so heavily in the lexicon of British political discourse. The winter of discontent was responsible for the most important post war inflexion point in this country’s politics, the premiership of Margaret Thatcher and eighteen years of Conservative rule. In late 1978 Labour led in the polls and Jim Callaghan was preferred to Margaret Thatcher on the best PM question then…

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This twitter thread from Opinium’s Chris Curtis makes sense to me and if there is a backlash from Rishi Sunak’s proposals then there’s a couple of betting implications. First of all I suspect Sunak will become very unpopular amongst Conservative MPs and the Conservative Party core vote of pensioners so if you’re not laying Sunak then you should be especially if you followed the PB tip of 250/1 to succeed Boris Johnson. Secondly those who have bet on Labour having…

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Today reports emerged in several newspapers that the government is looking at increasing national insurance contributions to overhaul social care. I’m so old I remember when the Conservative Party I used to be a member of rightly described increases on national insurance as a tax on jobs, as this chart below shows. In my lifetime when the Conservatives start increasing taxes against the manifesto commitments or start messing around with taxation related to houses then they pay a huge electoral…

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This is a very interesting market from William Hill and I also like the terms of this bet which makes what happens in certain circumstances. If you look at the list below which shows when each of the next country has their next election you can understand why Suga of Japan is the favourite in this market. Canada – September 20th 2021 Japan – On or before 28 November 2021 France – 10th and 24th of April Brazil – 2nd…

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