Looking ahead to 2022 one period where Boris Johnson might be at most risk this year will be in the aftermath of May’s local elections, helpfully Smarkets have a market up on these crucial local elections. One of the reasons Boris Johnson will be at risk is that if it is a poor night for his party, in contrast to the 2021 locals where Boris Johnson led the Conservatives to a 7% lead over Labour in the national equivalent share…
In 2017 the difference between the Tories continuing in office or a rainbow alliance was the performance of the Scottish Tories, in 1992 John Major doesn’t win a majority without the Scottish Tories, Scotland is a very important part of the fabric of the Union, so in close elections pay even more attention to Scotland. The SNP will be happy with this poll, they are polling 3 points higher than they did in the 2019 general election, an astonishing performance…
At this time of the year I look forward to seeing the predictions of the voters for the upcoming year as collated by Ipsos MORI. It looks pretty grim for Boris Johnson and Sir Keir Starmer with a majority of the public thinking Boris Johnson will not be the Prime Minister at the end of 2022 whilst more people think Starmer will not be Labour leader by the end of 2022 than do. Like Gordon Brown, Boris Johnson wanted to…
For someone who has been expecting the Tories to hold North Shropshire on Thursday I have to admit the mood music has made be doubt myself. I agree with the tweet from the former political journalist Steve Hawkes. What the Tories have excelled at and the Lib Dems haven’t done well is the expectations management game. If the Tories hold the seat on Thursday then it will feel like a gain, which should take remove some of pressure and grumbling…
I like this market from Smarkets because it allows you to bet on Boris Johnson’s future without getting dragged into the Boris Johnson exit markets where predicting the year of his exit which can be fraught with difficulties. This market is a simple will enough Conservative MPs write a letter to Sir Graham Brady to trigger a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson before the next general election. My expectation is that the Conservatives will hold North Shropshire on…
Even some of Boris Johnson own MPs believe this narrative, maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon, Boris Johnson’s credibility amongst his own MPs will be shot. I’d love to see a betting market on the size of the Conservative rebellion next week. I predicted that Boris Johnson’s political authority would evaporate over the shameless and shameful bid to save Owen Paterson, I didn’t expect it to happen quite so soon. What must alarm Tory MPs is just how…
One of the earliest lessons I learned about opinion polls was that an unweighted poll, no matter how large the sample size is, isn’t an accurate barometer of the public. The most famous voodoo poll was the 1936 Literary Digest poll that had a sample size of over 2 million predicted that Alf Langdon would beat FDR in the 1936 Presidential election. It was only 39% out on the actual result as FDR as won by over 24% of the…
Following her reappointment as Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper became the third or fourth favourite with a few bookies to succeed Sir Keir Starmer as next Labour leader. I’m not keen to back her, in fact I’m a layer in this market. One reason for me is that Yvette Cooper put in a nondescript performance when she was Shadow Home Secretary for nearly five years between 2011 and 2015, then as Shakira sang, HIPS Don’t Lie, then there’s her constituency…