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Yesterday The Times reported When David Canzini, the prime minister’s new deputy chief of staff, addressed advisers on Friday last week he had some surprising news. The strategist, an ally of Sir Lynton Crosby, told those present that they had to begin preparing for the possibility of a general election in the autumn of next year. While May 2024 remains the most likely date, Canzini said that the “clock is ticking”. The prime minister, he said, was “not out of the woods…

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TSE

This finding by YouGov about consumer confidence falling to an all time low in this near decade long series is quite illuminating. Consumer confidence is much lower now that any time since the start of the pandemic. Many of us have been saying for a while that the cost of living crisis, something that is going to get much worse, will be very damaging to Tories, Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak in particular. YouGov note The cost of living crisis…

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There have been several reports saying Conservative MP think that the conflict in Ukraine helps Boris Johnson and reduces the chances of him being ousted as Conservative leader and Prime Minister because the logic is that Conservative MPs think now is not the time to replace a Prime Minister who shamefully broke his own Covid-19 regulations, told Parliament deliberate fundamental inaccuracies, and general unfitness for high office, or even low office. However I’m wondering that assumption by Conservative MPs might…

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Last October, those heady days, when Boris Johnson and the Conservatives were seemingly unassailable and people were wondering if Labour would ever lead in the polls under Starmer, I wrote a piece that the economy might be the issue that makes the next general election more favourable for Labour so this polling from YouGov is something I am intrigued by. What must really alarm Conservative strategist is that a majority of Conservative voters think the government is handling inflation badly….

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One of the many good things Smarkets have done is regularly have a market up on opinion poll leads. With eight days left in February I can just about understand these odds but my inclination is to back a Conservative lead this month. If they follow their usual schedule I’d expect a YouGov poll later on this week and Opinium poll on Saturday, by happenstance they are the pollsters with the smallest Labour leads with leads of 4% and 3%…

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You know you’ve hit rock bottom when Boris Johnson, that paragon of faithfulness, and his allies accuse you of disloyalty but that’s where Rishi Sunak finds himself this weekend. Following the Savile row Sunak rightly said he wouldn’t have said the disgraceful comments that Boris Johnson came out with some of the cabinet have become a bit vengeful towards Sunak, with at least three cabinet ministers want Sunak sacked, they are intent on belittling Sunak. ‘Cabinet ministers have turned on…

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Whilst few expected Boris Johnson to be the beau idéal of a Prime Minister it still feels like a shock having to write a piece about this betting market from Smarkets on Boris Johnson getting fined which says a lot about the state of his premiership. I was tempted to back the Yes option in this market but the terms of the bet make it unattractive, I don’t think the police process will be that quick, so it makes backing…

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