Today’s leak from Boris Johnson’s camp about having 100 backers looks like an episode of The Inbetweeners, this indicates to me Boris Johnson’s campaign isn’t going as well as he hoped. I feel confident in laying Boris Johnson in the next PM market even though I have a nagging feeling that he has the chutzpah to take it to the voters even if he loses 235 to 120 in the voting of Tory MPs. I think Boris Johnson may perform…
It really bodes ill for the Tory party that so many adjectives about them need censoring. Whoever wins the Tory leadership contest next week it is all about how bad the Tory defeat at the next election will be, anywhere from an honourable defeat to an extinction level event defeat that makes 1997 look like a good result for the Tories. TSE
My hunch is that older Tory members, the ones that do not have an email address, are disproportionately more likely to favour Boris Johnson over other candidates, which could upset a few expectations. But this is further proof that Sir Graham Brady and the rest of the 1922 are terrible at organising things, I get the feeling they couldn’t organise a farting contest in a baked beans factory. The result of the second Tory leadership contest of 2022 could be…
If Boris Johnson is going to be stopped becoming Tory leader and Prime Minister next week Tory MPs and members will need to see that Boris Johnson isn’t best placed to get the best Tory result at the next election, that Boris Johnson is a loser. The next election will be the first Labour v Con fight that Boris Johnson won’t be facing an elderly socialist opponent that some have accused of antisemitism. It looks like Sunak might give the…
I love irony, is there no greater irony than a (former) republican having a regent? Regent to Queen Liz Truss is what Jeremy Hunt effectively is in this government. Tomorrow’s PMQs could actually matter for once, Michael Gove assessment seems accurate. TSE
Like the JL Partners poll this YouGov poll shows Tory members are having buyer’s remorse over selecting Liz Truss over Rishi Sunak and who can blame them for revolting against Liz Truss after Rishi Sunak’s warnings have been vindicated. Given her performances during the campaign where she frequently u-turned and went full Corbyn when journalists quoted her own words and press releases it was clear Liz Truss would be a complete duffer, only the terminal stupid would have predicted Liz…
This polling was carried out before Liz Truss decided to turn Kwasi Kwarteng’s tenure as Chancellor as a tribute to the Anglo-Zanzibar war but I suspect the appointment of Jeremy Hunt will do little to help this type of polling in the short term. The Tory raison d’être is that we might be bastards but we know how to run an economy, if they aren’t seen competent on the economy then they are on course for a defeat that could…
Longstanding readers of PB know that Mike Smithson and myself love the Ipsos/MORI net satisfaction ratings because their data goes back nearly fifty years and it allows us to help put into context current polling and are usually a greater pointer to electoral outcomes. These ratings show how well the PM is doing one month after becoming PM (Thatcher’s is three months after she became PM as MORI didn’t poll monthly then.) Just imagine what the current Prime Minister’s ratings…