Alastair Meeks and I called this right. I suspect the Tory Party will tear itself apart over the vote to suspend Boris Johnson, but it will need around 40 Tory MPs to vote with the opposition to suspend Boris Johnson and we will get a by election in Uxbridge & South Ruislip. TSE
Today’s big news is Trump confirming he is going to be indicted next Tuesday, bring a whole new meaning to Super Tuesday. For most politicians this would be a career ender but for Trump this is no impediment, the overwhelmingly member of GOP elected officials appear to defend him no matter what. My strategy based on Trump’s legal problems is to lay him for the general election and back him for the GOP nomination, the following poll backs up my…
The Times are reporting that Rishi Sunak could publish Boris Johnson’s resignation honours list as early as today, yesterday they reported that Stanley Johnson is still on course to be knighted in these honours. If Rishi Sunak brings dishonour to the honours system by giving a man with a legacy of domestic abuse allegations then Sunak deserves the opprobrium headed his way. The Labour attack posters write themselves, and one thing Sir Keir Starmer has shown, they aren’t delicate flowers…
When this news broke Alastair Meeks made this observation to me which I wholeheartedly agree with ‘I can’t imagine Boris Johnson would have been given findings in advance to respond to unless they had found him to be in breach.’ My view is that I expect Boris Johnson’s outriders are likely to spend the next few weeks bitterly denouncing the committee which will be further evidence that Boris Johnson is going to be censured by the committee. Because of the…
Poor Donald Trump, he spent most of 2016 arguing that Hillary Clinton should be locked up now he might end up being locked up himself. What a failure Trump was, in four years as President with a GOP senate, a GOP House for the first two years, and a SCOTUS with a majority of GOP hacks, he wasn’t able to destroy the deep state. None of this changes my view that Trump will still win the GOP nomination. TSE
There is some hope among Tory strategists and Sunak himself that a mixture of tax cuts and Sunak’s leadership will help the Tories do better at the general election than the current polls suggest. This is polling from Redfield & Wilton shows how risky that strategy could do. I suspect whilst Sunak polls better than his party, I suspect any positives Sunak has is being damaged by the huge negatives around the party. Sunak has made mistakes, such as keeping…
The local results came as quite the shock to those at the top of the Tory party, the weekend before the locals the Tory expectations management was for around 600 seat loses which means they were really expecting losses of somewhere around 400 to 500 seat losses so they could spin the result as better than the expectations/polls. The result was much more horrific for Sunak’s party. I’ll need some solid data rather than anecdata that shy switchers are actually…
At the 2019 general election the Tories led Labour by 35% amongst voters who owned their homes and led Labour by 10% with mortgage holders, whilst this polling from Redfield & Wilton doesn’t split the between homeowners and mortgage holders it is pretty alarming for the Tories. Although it has recovered from the low point and rapid shift of the Liz Truss premiership cheering the fact the Tories are only trailing Labour by 1% with this demographic is as idiotic…