That world cloud from Savanta was published earlier on this week and it looks not only damaging for the Tories as the next general election but for a generation in the same way the Tories successfully used the winter of discontent for over a decade to win four general elections in a row. The news that broke on Friday evening that Sunak’s cost saving exercise on HS2 could end up costing more and the HS2 extension to Euston may not…
If Unionist tactical voting occurs at the next general election in Scotland then that bodes ill for the SNP as it looks like the red rose is going to become the flower of Scotland again. TSE
The truly terrifying thing is Nigel Farage might not be the worst option for the Tory Party, not whilst Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Frosty The No Man, and Liz Truss all have leadership ambitions. From a betting perspective lay the sane* candidates in the next Tory leader betting market. TSE *Like an Alabama love story, it is a relative thing. Update
Just for a bit of fun I thought it would be fun to take part in this thought experiment and I hope PBers will join in the comments section. The only way I can see Sunak still being Prime Minister is if the events in Ukraine goes sub optimal for the West (or if Ukraine actually are on the cusp of winning and Putin goes nuclear) and/or if China decides to invade Taiwan, something which cause problems for the entire…
Longstanding readers of PB know why both Mike Smithson and myself rank the the Ipsos leader ratings so highly and these findings are ominous for Sunak as Alastair Meeks observes. If Sunak was ousted before the next election then I would expect it to be after next May’s locals if the results are much worse than expected for a government that expects to be re-elected a year later. The possibility of three successive mandateless Prime Ministers in one parliament seems…
If the Tories want to relive the Truss premiership and having polling showing them finishing fifth in a general election after the Labour party , the SNP, the Lib Dems, and the Natural Law party then ending the triple lock might be the best way to go about it. I am surprised to see younger voters to be pro triple lock given the way that generation has been treated recently but I suppose they will be pensioners one day. Based…
TSE
I believe in the maxim that oppositions do not win elections but governments lose elections and this government has done more than most governments to lose the next election and expectation we are on course for a 1997 style result but I have my doubts. My primary doubt is because of the position Jeremy Corbyn bequeathed Sir Keir Starmer. Starmer started on 202 MPs and even before boundary changes Starmer has to make a net gain of 124 seats to…