politicalbetting.com

Like many I thought Sunak would hold the election in October/November 2024 but I am now leaning towards an election held next May, there’s a few advantages for holding it then. Using the budget as tax cutting launchpad for the election campaign. Avoids having an election taking place with the energy prices dominating the agenda during the colder months. It isn’t difficult to imagine OFGEM increasing the price cap next October. An autumn election would see Labour highlighting the second…

Read More Read More

As George W. Bush said ‘You can fool some of the people all the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on.’ TSE

What a time to be alive, never did I think I would be doing a thread header on whether the Home Secretary called a town a shithole. I cannot see any next cabinet minister to leave/Cleverly exit date markets but if there were I suspect I’d be backing Cleverly to survive this story. In politics perceptions sometimes matter than the facts and this will cement the belief that the Tories are full of arrogant out of touch elitists even if…

Read More Read More

I really want to know who shot JFK. The magic bullet theory is utter mince, anybody who believes that really shouldn’t have the vote, or leave the house alone. TSE

For those betting on Nigel Farage winning this year’s I’m A Celebrity, Get Me Out Of Here this polling from YouGov will make for sobering reason. I’d sooner trap an appendage in a door than watch this show at the best of times and I am not watching this year’s edition, despite the opportunity to see Nigel Farage’s bottom but I may bet on it based on these YouGov ratings, those of you who watch this show let me know…

Read More Read More

I’m not sure the public would want Boris Johnson to run a whelk stall let alone the country. One of the more cutting remarks I heard about Boris Johnson, which turns out to be more accurate with each passing day, is that Boris Johnson is what plebs think an intellectual looks and sounds like, throwing a classical historical reference or a bit of Latin doesn’t mean you’re clever. When it comes to Boris Johnson return as Prime Minister, alea jacta…

Read More Read More

The last poll that the Tories on 30% or higher was the More In Common, conducted on the 14th to the 16th of October. Being stuck in the 20s for a month constitutes a rut. If the Autumn statement doesn’t improve the Tory vote share then I suspect then the next opportunity will be the budget next spring which I expect to be a tax cut bonanza. Make your prediction in the comments on when the Tories will be back…

Read More Read More

Smarkets have this market up on the next general election on out of the SNP and the Lib Dems, who will win the most seats. I can understand why the Lib Dems are the favourites in this market but I wouldn’t be surprised if the SNP won this market. Whilst this has been an annus horribilis for the SNP, particularly for the past and present leadership, with the Westminster voting intention polls (and the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election) that…

Read More Read More