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US Election Night: The Ten Counties We Need to Watch (Part One of Two)

US Election Night: The Ten Counties We Need to Watch (Part One of Two)

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US Election Day (which is, I suppose, a misnomer given most votes have now been cast) is just five days away. Here – in order of reporting – are the first five of the ten counties punters need to watch in order to correctly estimate the likely election result. Dixville Notch – Tuesday about 5:05am UK timeFirst in the nation to report (probably). There will be seven to ten votes cast. Last time around, Clinton got 4, Trump 2, Romney…

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READING THE TEA LEAVES: A LOOK AT NORTH CAROLINA EARLY VOTING

READING THE TEA LEAVES: A LOOK AT NORTH CAROLINA EARLY VOTING

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The North Carolina Board of Elections is great: they give you turnout by day, by type (mostly in person early voting), by gender and by party affiliation. This means you can compare the numbers to four years ago (when North Carolina also had an awful lot of early voting), and can draw some interesting conclusions. So, here they come: Turnout is up – and it’s mostly in person early voting. At this stage in 2016, 1.6 million people had voted early…

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The Battle of Trafalgar

The Battle of Trafalgar

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That sleepy #englishbulldog pictured in the previous retweet, is none other than the Trafalgar Group’s mascot “Horatio” Named of course after the Hero of the battle of Trafalgar, Lord Admiral Horatio Nelson. Since we are a polling firm, he goes by “Ratio”. pic.twitter.com/Kj5PhmqheH — The Trafalgar Group (@trafalgar_group) August 8, 2020 I spent 30 minutes on the phone this morning with Robert Cahaly, the Head of The Trafalgar Group which PBers will recall as the pollster who called Michigan, Pennyslvania…

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We could be wrong, you know

We could be wrong, you know

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OK. For a moment, I want us all to play a game. This is a very useful management technique I’ve learned, and it’s called the premortem. What I want us to do is to imagine it’s December 2020, and President Trump is re-elected – what did we get wrong, what were the signs we missed? Here are my three ways we could be wrong: We didn’t pay enough attention to approval ratings. President Trump’s approval rating has been steadily improving….

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Migration to New Server

Migration to New Server

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Hi all, We’re moving PB over to a shiny, new server, with lots of additional chrome and bells and whistles and added security and all that lark. It’s highly likely there will be downtime in the next 12 hours. I’ll try and keep it to a minimum, but no promises. Thanks Robert

Where is the Democratic Tea Party?

Where is the Democratic Tea Party?

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Looking at the changes in the US electorate There is no doubt that President Trump is keen to make the Presidential election a referendum on ‘woke’, on the topping of statues, and on the Democratic party being in hock to a far left faction. And recent did gift him some prize examples, the “awkward squad” of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts, and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan were all elected to the House…

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