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History, as we know, tends to pivot on the smallest of decisions. One such decision came in the autumn of 1978 when Prime Minister Jim Callaghan chose not to call a general election, leading to the “Winter of Discontent” and the downfall of his Labour government. But what if Callaghan had gone to the country in October 1978, as many of his advisers urged, and secured a narrow but workable majority? Britain’s political, economic, and geopolitical trajectory could have been…

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The British constitution, much like a badly organised school sports day, has always valued tradition over efficiency. And among the most venerable traditions of our great nation is the appointment of people to the House of Lords not because they have led with honour, wisdom, or humility—but because, well, someone has to keep the red benches warm. Enter Amanda Spielman. Now, before the mob gathers outside Westminster with pitchforks and strongly worded tweets, let’s get one thing clear: this isn’t…

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Dear Herr Merz, President Trump is about to impose swingeing tariffs with the goal of reducing the US’s bilateral trade deficit with Germany and the EU. And I know, the temptation is to respond in kind, and demonstrate that you have agency. Don’t. It is stupid and counter-productive, and the impact on European and German voters would be severe. Instead, I would like to suggest an alternative approach: do absolutely nothing. Why? Well, three reasons. Firstly, the impact on US demand for European…

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All eyes are on the Presidency, but the reality is that it is far from the only election this cycle: there are (one higher than normal) 34 Senate races. And, boy, is this one interesting. As a reminder, the Democrats (along with associated Independents) currently control the Senate by 51 to 49. And there a *lot* of close elections this year. There are three Senate races currently held by the Democrats in States where Trump won in 2020: West Virginia,…

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In the next 30 minutes or so, Politicalbetting is going to transition from Vanilla Forums for comments Commento.io. Why? Well, as some of you will have noticed, Vanilla came with a bunch of… issues. Specifically, many of you could only access the comments “backwards”. Of course, some people prefer it that way. So: We’re going to try Commento.io. It may be a terrific success. It may be something we revert after 72 hours because it doesn’t run as well as…

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Or why elections in 2024 were good ones to win It’s a theme I’ve riffed on before, but the last four years have been pretty miserable for consumers in the developed world, largely because commodity prices have risen sharply. And when commodity prices rise, then other prices (but not wages) will follow. Higher natural gas prices mean more expensive electricity, which not only squeezes household budgets, but means that fertilizer is more expensive (the Haber process), making food cost more….

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Shall I tell you a story. It’s an American story, but it’s generally applicable. In the US, there was once a President called Barack Obama. While he was President, the number of people crossing the Southern  Border into the US continued the decline that had started under his predecessor, George W Bush, falling from 723,000 in 2008 to just 416,000 in 2016.  Then Donald Trump became President, and made a terribly big fuss about the Southern Border.  Democrats weren’t very…

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Most of the things that make voters happy or sad, richer or poorer… well… governments have very little power over them.  Be in power in a period of peace and prosperity, and the voters thank you and think you a genius (or at least mildly competent). Be there when the Global Financial Crisis comes around, or when Covid hits, or when commodity prices go spiraling up thanks to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine… well, they blame you. Arnie said it best:…

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