All eyes are on the Presidency, but the reality is that it is far from the only election this cycle: there are (one higher than normal) 34 Senate races. And, boy, is this one interesting. As a reminder, the Democrats (along with associated Independents) currently control the Senate by 51 to 49. And there a *lot* of close elections this year. There are three Senate races currently held by the Democrats in States where Trump won in 2020: West Virginia,…
In the next 30 minutes or so, Politicalbetting is going to transition from Vanilla Forums for comments Commento.io. Why? Well, as some of you will have noticed, Vanilla came with a bunch of… issues. Specifically, many of you could only access the comments “backwards”. Of course, some people prefer it that way. So: We’re going to try Commento.io. It may be a terrific success. It may be something we revert after 72 hours because it doesn’t run as well as…
Or why elections in 2024 were good ones to win It’s a theme I’ve riffed on before, but the last four years have been pretty miserable for consumers in the developed world, largely because commodity prices have risen sharply. And when commodity prices rise, then other prices (but not wages) will follow. Higher natural gas prices mean more expensive electricity, which not only squeezes household budgets, but means that fertilizer is more expensive (the Haber process), making food cost more….
Shall I tell you a story. It’s an American story, but it’s generally applicable. In the US, there was once a President called Barack Obama. While he was President, the number of people crossing the Southern Border into the US continued the decline that had started under his predecessor, George W Bush, falling from 723,000 in 2008 to just 416,000 in 2016. Then Donald Trump became President, and made a terribly big fuss about the Southern Border. Democrats weren’t very…
Most of the things that make voters happy or sad, richer or poorer… well… governments have very little power over them. Be in power in a period of peace and prosperity, and the voters thank you and think you a genius (or at least mildly competent). Be there when the Global Financial Crisis comes around, or when Covid hits, or when commodity prices go spiraling up thanks to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine… well, they blame you. Arnie said it best:…
Political earthquakes are infrequent, but they do happen. In 2015, in Scotland, the SNP swept the board, taking 56 of the 59 seats on offer. Labour – once dominant – dropped from 41 seats to just a single one, despite winning almost a quarter of the vote. First Past the Post can be cruel. In Canada, in 1993, the Progressive Conservatives contrived to lose 154 of their 156 seats. They went from government to fifth place, dropping behind not just…
We’ve all forgotten (what with the excitement of Starmer v Sunak), but the US Presidential election continues… and on Betfair exchange, Trump has moved into a commanding lead. Looking at these odds, what stand out to me is not that Trump is odds on (we can argue whether he or Biden should be narrow favorite), but just how big the gap. The polls remains pretty static: Biden and Trump are neck and neck. The Republicans have an advantage in the…
• See “The Wikipedia Elections Edit War”, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVIl_DJl5NU INTRODUCTION During the Measurement series I have argued that concepts we believe to be universal and eternal are simply not. I discussed the limitations of political positions and the definition of elites, and those articles were fairly straightforward. But now let’s look at a thing that we all think we understand and yet don’t: the concept of a political party. THE LIST See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertas_Spain See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_List_(Italy) The simplest form of…