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“When the curtain falls, it’s time to get off the stage.” So said John Major the morning after the 1997 election, announcing his resignation as Tory leader. But he actually remained leader for another 6 weeks. This was typical of Tory leaders, who have universally remained in post while their leader is chosen. This has remained the case after the change to include the final members ballot, stretching the timetable. Even Liz Truss waiting for Sunak to be chosen by…

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As discussed in Part One, the Greens have gained impressive local council bases the last couple of years and are targetting three new seats at the 2024 election to try and grow their Parliamentary presence. However, while the Greens are clearly ascendant in their new target seats, albeit not to great heights in North Herefordshire, the same is not true in Brighton Pavilion. Losing Lucas Since winning the seat in 2010, Caroline Lucas has built a formidable majority which now…

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It rarely makes headlines outside of The New Statesman, but the Greens have had (by far) their best period ever since 2019. Since that election the Greens have set new records in: By-elections (First ever double-digit vote share, plus two of only four deposits saved in their history); Local elections (Trebling their local council base since 2019, and increasing it almost 10 times from the pre-2019 level); Mayoral Elections (Record vote share in London, and everywhere else where they ran…

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October 19th sees two by-elections, both in similarly safe Tory seats. The bookies (and presumably punters) rate the Tory chances as fairly different in the two seats. I’m not sure that’s right. Tamworth and Mid Beds certainly have their differences. Tamworth is a Midlands seat which heavily backed leave with an estimated 66% of their vote, whereas Mid Beds is a more affluent southern seat which is estimated to have voted leave by 53% – almost exactly the national average….

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My last article, arguing Labour are rightly favourite in Selby & Ainsty, provoked a very fair rebuttal from some commenters. The Tories may be vulnerable, but Labour are hardly a party with a history of by-election upsets. That’s what the Lib Dems are for. The Lib Dems have enjoyed three by-election victories since the last election, winning not just Remain-leaning Chesham & Amersham but also Leave seats in North Shropshire and Tiverton & Honiton. In these latter two seats they…

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Sometimes one question gives you every answer. Are we living through another 1996, or another 1991? The Tories are riven with infighting and far behind in the polls with at most 18 months to go until the election, but some see parallels to John Major’s predicament before he won the 1992 election. That election was won against expectations in large part due to his personal popularity. While ‘The Government’ had deeply negative ratings throughout 1991 and early 1992 he never…

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Recent revelations about SNP bookkeeping and motorhome buying have led to headlines about a sudden meltdown, but this is somewhat misleading. While their polling remained stable until late 2022 their position has looked increasingly precarious. The problem the SNP have is actually similar to the Tories. In 2019 (and 2021, for the SNP) they won massive victories with an implausibly broad coalition of voters focused around a key issue. For the Tories it was Brexit, for the SNP it was…

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The people have spoken, at least those who vote at local elections. And the basic message is clear: ‘Tories out’. With rare exceptions, the Tories got battered up and down England, and while Labour aren’t at the heights they hit in the mid-90s the Tories are at the same depths. Two questions arise. When will we get an election? And will Rishi Sunak fight it? On the second question, I think he almost certainly will. The Johnsonites in Parliament now…

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