Are the Tories set to lose ALL of their Welsh Seats?
This looks an interesting bet
Q
Latest WH2024 polling has Biden ahead of Trump but losing to Haley
Michelle Obama moving up in the WH2024 betting
Quite what lies behind the reports that Michelle Obama could run for the presidency I do not know. What we have seen is a fair amount of speculation in the US media in the past 24 hours.But the betting markets, as the Smarkets chart shows, illustrates Michelle’s populaarity. Biden’s big problem is age. He’ll be 82 in November when the election takes place and there is little doubt about Michelle Obama’s popularity. Her husband, Barack, can’t run again having served…
After two by-election flops the Tories should blame their own complacency
As it is both Starmer and Davey are now invigorated In the past two and a bit weeks the mood of Labour and Lib Dem parties has soared following the Chesham and Batley by-elections. For in both seats the Tories were widely believed to be next to near certainties and this was driving the media narrative and the betting. Betfair had the blue team as a 75%+ chance to take Batley and a 95% one in Chesham. There’s been an…
Following LAB’s narrow Batley victory Starmer moves up in the next PM betting
As expected Starmer has got something of a boost in the Betfair next PM betting following his party’s narrow victory to hold onto Batley in the early hours of yesterday morning. In view of George Galloway’s intervention taking 22% of the vote this was a far better result for Labour than many right wing commentators have been ready to acknowledge. Galloway’s stated aim was to undermine Starmer and he flopped even though he took such a large share of the…
In the last 13 Westminster by-elections just one has been won by a man
There have been thirteen Westminster by-elections since December 2016 and an extraordinary fact is that in all but one of them, Stoke Central in February 2017, the winning candidate has been a woman. This streak started with Sarah Olney gaining Richmond Park for the LDs followed by Caroline Johnson’s safe retention of Sleaford and N Hykham a week later for the Tories. Trudy Harrison gained Copeland from LAB for the Tories two months later on the same day as Stoke…