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Like all party leaders after a much publicised by-election victory Keir Starmer sped up to constituency for the now customary photo event with the winning candidate and assorted party workers. For all the Tories have tried to play this result down the expectations were that they were heading for another clear victory in “the North” so long seen as LAB territory. The betting markets, as discussed in an earlier thread, are a good way of looking at perceptions and it…

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And the only poll, from Survation, was wrong as well Throughout this whole campaign the narrative was that LAB was going to get beaten and the story we would be covering this morning was whether Starmer would survive as LAB leader. We did have a poll that was published two weeks ago that had LAB 41%, CON 47%, LD 3%, Galloway 6%. The result at 5.30am this morning was: There is little doubt that Russia Today presenter and former LAB…

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There’s an interesting feature just published by the Guardian about the C&A by-election just a fortnight ago which makes the interesting point that HS2 is being used by the Tories to explain the shock result rather that was the big issue with many former Tory voters there, the PM Boris Johnson. The article by Peter Walker goes on: Rather than being a one-off upset, Green and other Lib Dems argue that their campaigning uncovered widespread dissatisfaction with the Conservatives and Boris Johnson..A…

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In all the analysis of today’s Batley and Spen by-election there has hardly been any mention of the national political picture and a clear narrowing of the Tory poll lead particularly since that Sun front page with the picture of then HealthSec Hancock with an aide. Looking at the numbers the latest Redfield poll has CON down 4% on last week with Savanta/Comres showing 5% drop on the week – both polls showing CON>LAB swings since GE2019. The latest YouGov…

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Read into this what you will The big news on the eve of the by-election is that LAB figures are saying they only have a 5-10% chance of holding the seat. This looks like a classic case of expectation management to deflect some of the negatives of a possible loss. This “revelation” might also be part of an effort to get out the vote tomorrow. The result is that the betting has moved even more towards the Tories who are…

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Unlike the Tories LAB doesn’t need a majority to form the next government The above chart shows the movement on the Betfair “next PM” market over the past 12 months. As can be seen the big mover has been Starmer who reached a 32% chance last August but has now fallen back to just 12%. This is a hard market to call because just about the only way the LAB leader gets called to the Palace is after a general…

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