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Another poll has CON getting much closer to LAB

Another poll has CON getting much closer to LAB

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Chart showing trend in TNS-BMRB polls this year pic.twitter.com/tWzf0RHUTf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 15, 2013 Another poll has CON getting close to LAB Latest figures from TNS-BMRB CON 34% (+5) LAB 36% (-3), LD 9% (0) UKIP 13% (-1), — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 15, 2013 The firm carried out the survey of 1,207 people between the 10th and 14th October 2013. The interviews were conducted using the pollster’s unique online self-completion which combines face to face with online questioning. Generally the firm’s…

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Tories get to within one percent in today’s YouGov daily poll

Tories get to within one percent in today’s YouGov daily poll

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A narrowing lead or normal variation within margin of error? The Tory share of 37% is the best for the party since March 16 2012 a few days before the budget which seemed set off the decline. Four weeks ago YouGov had the two parties level-pegging. Ten days later LAB had an 11% lead. 37% is also what the party secured at GE2010 which in view of the austerity measures is quite remarkable. As yet I have not seen the…

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Both LAB and CON up 2 in the October ICM phone poll

Both LAB and CON up 2 in the October ICM phone poll

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Just 27% tell ICM that believe "press should get on with regulating itself 64% say there should be to independent, external regulation — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 14, 2013 ICM backing for Miliband energy cap 30% say right to let "the market decide" 61% favoured capping — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 14, 2013 Thumbs down to Royal Mail pribatisation from ICM sample 63% said privatisation a bad thing leading higher prices and cut 29% say good thing — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 14, 2013

Populus and Survation had almost the same raw figures for UKIP support yet their headline numbers were very different

Populus and Survation had almost the same raw figures for UKIP support yet their headline numbers were very different

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The impact of different polling methodologies Both Populus and Survation operate in a very similar manner. Both do their fieldwork online, both weight for likely turnout, and both apply a formula to ensure that their samples are politically balanced. Survation uses past voting weighting comparing what respondents said they did at GE2015 and with the actual result. Populus asks “which political party would you say you have usually most closely identified yourself with?” and compares back to the 2010 Social…

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Looking at the 2010 CON voters whom Cameron has to win back back

Looking at the 2010 CON voters whom Cameron has to win back back

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The other big battle of GE2015 There are two groups voters who will decide GE2015 – those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 who now say they are voting LAB, and those who voted for Cameron’s Conservatives who now tell pollsters that they will vote UKIP. We have focused a fair bit on the former but less so on the latter. The big blue hope is that that when faced with the prospect of a Miliband-led LAB government they will…

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Good to see my 14-1 shot for the LD leadership back in action AND being political

Good to see my 14-1 shot for the LD leadership back in action AND being political

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Ex-energy secretary, Chris Huhne, says EdM's energy price cap is a bad idea pic.twitter.com/X4GW9s73jp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2013 The one person who has put up green taxes is George Osborne former energy secretary Chris Huhne tells @afneil #bbcsp — DailySunday Politics (@daily_politics) October 13, 2013 Huhne – the man who makes Osbo appear a political novice A long time ago when it appeared that Chris Huhne’s “little local difficulty” might not end in a criminal trial I…

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Polling blow for UKIP the betting favourite to win most votes at EP2014: Survation has them 13pc behind

Polling blow for UKIP the betting favourite to win most votes at EP2014: Survation has them 13pc behind

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Ever since UKIP strong performances in February’s Eastleigh by-election and the May local election there’s been an expectation that the party could top the polls in the May 2014 elections for the European Parliament. The purples were odds-on. They’ve now eased a bit but they remain the favourite. So this latest poll from Survation, the firm that in the past year has constantly given them the best Westminster shares,is going to come as a big disappointment. Farage & co have…

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With Dacre attacks on the Guardian and Cameron attacks on the BBC check out YouGov’s most recent “Trust Tracker”

With Dacre attacks on the Guardian and Cameron attacks on the BBC check out YouGov’s most recent “Trust Tracker”

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This was the YouGov chart published last week on the Mail-Miliband spat pic.twitter.com/dIeRGc1hvA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 12, 2013 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB