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Author: MikeSmithson

GE2015 projections based on swing-back to the incumbent government are irrelevant: The incumbent government isn’t standing

GE2015 projections based on swing-back to the incumbent government are irrelevant: The incumbent government isn’t standing

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Final week campaign poster – May 2010 All parties will be campaigning for change In recent weeks there have been a number of GE2015 projections all based on one common idea – that incumbents governments recover in the final period leading up to polling day. Certainly that happened in 1992, 1997, 2001 and 2010, but we didn’t see that effect in 2005. Looking forward to May 2015 one big ingredient is missing – there is no incumbent government to be…

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The issues: Which parties are seen to be best

The issues: Which parties are seen to be best

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Will the Tory strengths trump the LAB ones or vice-versa? The chart above shows the latest YouGov best party on specific issues tracker. Today’s figures are not remarkable but I thought it useful to post as a reference point. It it perhaps worth pointing out that in the first year of this parliament the Tories regularly led on education and there was a poll where they were in the lead on the NHS. The CON best issues remain the economy,…

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There’s a mismatch between GE2015 overall outcome betting and the odds that can be had in individual seats

There’s a mismatch between GE2015 overall outcome betting and the odds that can be had in individual seats

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Richard Nabavi says don’t bet on a Tory majority The best odds you can currently get on a Conservative majority at the next election are 4.0 (3/1 in old money), which in isolation is a good bet if and only if you think the probability of a 2015 Cameron majority is higher than 25%. Of course, a Tory majority is not something which can happen independently of other eventualities; it can happen only if the Conservatives can hold on to…

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Time to have a dabble on Tristram Hunt at 33-1 for next LAB leader

Time to have a dabble on Tristram Hunt at 33-1 for next LAB leader

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LAB leader prospect Tristram Hunt went to Cambridge which last had a PM 78 years ago pic.twitter.com/jlbRSHyABn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 21, 2013 Overnight I’ve put bets on the new shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt, at 33/1 as next LAB leader. From what I can see he is only listed at Ladbrokes and PaddyPower both of whom have got him at 33/1. Hunt came to public prominence as a TV historian. He’s telegenic and, as you’d expect a good…

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Why Clegg thinks there are votes to be had in pursuing a fight with Gove on free schools

Why Clegg thinks there are votes to be had in pursuing a fight with Gove on free schools

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Educational issues have a particular salience amongst 2010 LDs 2010 LDs more likely to back LAB on education than current ones The paramount objective of the Lib Dems is to minimise seats losses at the general election and the argument with Gove on free schools helps in a number of ways. What we are talking about is niche marketing, sending signals to significant groups of electors in the seats that will matter to the party. In the key CON-LD battlegrounds…

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With so much difference between the week’s polls the best bet is to rely on ICM

With so much difference between the week’s polls the best bet is to rely on ICM

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How Betfair punters are seeing GE2015 So many polls – so little clarity With so many different pictures being recorded in the polls in the past week my normal recourse is to revert back to what I regard as the gold standard – the monthly phone poll from ICM. The firm was the top British pollster at three of the past four general elections and got the AV referendum right down to one decimlal point. This came out on Monday…

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Two very different pictures from the first two of tonight’s polls

Two very different pictures from the first two of tonight’s polls

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Closing the gap with ComRes online LAB moves to 11 percent lead with Opinium/Observer Other points from ComRes In a forced choice between Labour and the Conservatives, Labour leads as the party most trusted to … Make your family better off: LAB lead 7% Get the cost of living down: LAB lead 9% Keep prices down generally: LAB lead 11% Protect people’s jobs: LAB lead 16% Keep gas and electricity prices down: LAB lead 20% The Conservatives lead as the…

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