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Author: MikeSmithson

Why I’ve gone for 150+ lost LD deposits in this PaddyPower betting market

Why I’ve gone for 150+ lost LD deposits in this PaddyPower betting market

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PaddyPower  http://t.co/0KpwlJgy4T betting odds on how many deposits the LDs will lose at GE2015 See pic.twitter.com/FgzBKeUled — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2013 Michael Thrasher of the Rallings/Thrasher duo has recently surveyed LD performances and he reported that the situation is dire. The headline “Lib Dems Need Resurrection Not Recovery” sums it up. In many cases in local by-elections the party has seen its vote share has been in low double figures. The places where they’ve been doing okay have been…

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Sadiq Khan, Henry G’s 33-1 tip for next London Mayor, is now top LAB contender in the betting

Sadiq Khan, Henry G’s 33-1 tip for next London Mayor, is now top LAB contender in the betting

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Speaking to @channelinews with my mate @johnbiggs4mayor the next Mayor of Tower Hamlets #OneEastEnd pic.twitter.com/tUurebGJuk — Sadiq Khan MP (@SadiqKhan) October 29, 2013 Speaking to packed room of @HarrowLabour activists about vital local elections next year #Labourgains #Labourholds pic.twitter.com/V4JQWpLQ3E — Sadiq Khan MP (@SadiqKhan) October 28, 2013 Back in March Henry G Manson gave what might prove to be one of the best ever political betting tips here when he said get on Sadiq Khan, then at 33/1, for next…

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How actual migration numbers appear to follow concern level in Ipsos-MORI issues index

How actual migration numbers appear to follow concern level in Ipsos-MORI issues index

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The link between actual migration flow and concern level In Ipsos-MORI Issues Index See trend chart pic.twitter.com/QzyEJKVADp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2013 Other news from this afternoon’s Ipsos-MORI Issues Index Latest Ipsos-MORI Issues Index is out and sees rise for immigration See chart pic.twitter.com/RzvR0c61RT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2013 Economy still biggest concern in Ipsos-MORI Issues Index but not at the level it was See trend chart pic.twitter.com/NIe143ad7n — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2013

CORRECTION: New YouGov Scottish IndyRef poll finds NO with 24pc lead

CORRECTION: New YouGov Scottish IndyRef poll finds NO with 24pc lead

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Amongst men in the YouGov/Times IndyRef poll the NO lead is 10% amongst but 38% with women — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2013 30% of 2011 SNP supporters say they’ll vote NO There’s a new YouGov Scottish IndyRef poll which has NO 24% ahead. This is broadly in line with what we’ve seen from other pollsters. The gender gap is something that all the pollsters are picking up and clearly YES has a big challenge making inroads with women….

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Why the electoral bias against the Conservatives could be even greater next time

Why the electoral bias against the Conservatives could be even greater next time

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Disproportionate 2010 LD>LAB switching in the marginals could shift more seats We all know that the national vote threshold for LAB overall majority is considerably lower than for the Tories. The reason is partly the boundaries but mostly down to the way the Labour vote is distributed. Generally LAB supporters appear much less likely to turnout in seats where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. But could the overall bias against the Conservatives be even greater at GE2015 than at…

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The message from bookies offering GE2015 seat markets is that LAB is some way off an overall majority

The message from bookies offering GE2015 seat markets is that LAB is some way off an overall majority

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In the good old days of political betting, which sadly are no more, the number of seats the parties would get at the next general election were traded like stocks and shares. For those who followed the polls and fancied their political prediction skills this offered a lot of opportunities. Thus on the morning of the May 2010 general election the buy level on LAB on the spread betting markets was 226 seats – 31 short of what the party…

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EdM still tight odds on favourite to be next PM

EdM still tight odds on favourite to be next PM

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EdM remains firm odds on favourite to be next PM with PaddyPower  http://t.co/0KpwlJgy4T See odds pic.twitter.com/XbA10nEtqt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 30, 2013 Above is the latest betting on PaddyPower on who will be next PM. As can be seen there’s not much of a return in prospect for those backing Miliband. Betting sentiment is still on an outcome that sees the LAB leader entering Number 10. The price assumes that both LAB are in a position to form a government after…

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Peter the Punter on the US elections

Peter the Punter on the US elections

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The Big Picture, Midterms, Hillary It may seem a little early to focus on the US Elections – the Midterms are still a year away and the Presidentials are not due until November 2016 – but regular political punters will know the importance of reviewing the field early. US Politics have provided us with some of our richest pickings and it has often been the case that great value has been obtained by taking an early position. I should say…

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