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Author: MikeSmithson

#Fingergate is proving to be an opportunity lost for Farage/UKIP

#Fingergate is proving to be an opportunity lost for Farage/UKIP

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Tim Montgomerie got this right: A humourous response was required Soubry v Farage shaping up as most entertaining political feud de nos jours. UKIP overreaction to #fingergate makes it funnier still — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) December 22, 2013 @jameschappers he should have responded with humour, not anger — Tim Montgomerie (@TimMontgomerie) December 22, 2013 Of course, Anna Soubry’s comments on the Marr about Nigel Farage show were wrong but the interesting thing, as is being noted in the Tweets…

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Theresa May tops Boris for the first time in CONHome survey as preferred next party leader

Theresa May tops Boris for the first time in CONHome survey as preferred next party leader

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This could mean something or it could mean nothing but the December CONHome survey of party members sees a change at the top as preferred next party leader. This is the first time that the state school educated Home Secretary has been in this position in the site’s monthly survey of members. This might take on increasing importance over the next 18 months – for we could be less than a year away from the next contest. In recent times…

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The betting markets point to Labour re-taking Bradford West and Brighton Pavillion

The betting markets point to Labour re-taking Bradford West and Brighton Pavillion

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PaddyPower http://t.co/0KpwlJgy4T constituency odds have Respect losing Bradford W and the Greens Brighton Pavilion pic.twitter.com/QziJonTcDd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 21, 2013 @MSmithsonPB Greens immensely unpopular here – citywide poll had Labour with a 17% lead, Greens lost a by election in Pavilion on 11% swing — Cllr Warren Morgan (@warrenmorgan) December 21, 2013 Over the holiday period I’m planning to look at some of the constituency betting markets that we have up. There are now quite a few of…

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Unless the weekend polling produces a shock 2013 will be the first year since 2002 that the Tories didn’t record a lead in any opinion poll

Unless the weekend polling produces a shock 2013 will be the first year since 2002 that the Tories didn’t record a lead in any opinion poll

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The Tories have yet to record a lead in any opinion poll this year. The last year this happened was 2002. — Simon (@simonk133) December 19, 2013 I saw this Tweet earlier and thought I’d check it out. It is correct. At some point in every single year from 2003 to 2012 the Tories recorded at least one lead. On two occasions they’ve been level-pegging and this week they got within 2%. What this means electorally we’ll have to wait…

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The political party of 2013 – it has to be UKIP

The political party of 2013 – it has to be UKIP

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But winning seats matters more than votes In the final local by-elections of the year last night UKIP once again chalked up some impressive vote shares and came within 3 of taking a ward off the Tories in West Sussex – but when it came to seats they continue to struggle. The life-off moment for the party which seriously changed perceptions was on February 28th, the Eastleigh parliamentary by-election following Chris Huhne’s conviction and imprisonment. Starting out in fourth place…

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As concerns about the economy subside immigration could soon be biggest in the Ipsos-MORI Issues Index

As concerns about the economy subside immigration could soon be biggest in the Ipsos-MORI Issues Index

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@IpsosMORI Issues Index has been carried out in same way for 37 yrs and because it's unprompted is widely regarded as best test of salience — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2013 Main findings in December Ipsos-MORI Issues Index in which people state their concerns unprompted – what's salient pic.twitter.com/Gk2CL6no2T — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2013 As concerns about the economy subside immigration could soon be biggest issue See Ipsos-MORI December Issues index pic.twitter.com/utB3KKugw7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December…

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Just 2 more YouGov daily polls this year and those who bet on a 2013 cross-over look set to be disappointed

Just 2 more YouGov daily polls this year and those who bet on a 2013 cross-over look set to be disappointed

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CON doing better than 2012 In the summer PaddyPower attracted a lot of betting interest with a new market on whether the Tories would over-take Labour in at least one poll before the end of the year. With the pollster packing up for the holidays at the weekend there are just two surveys left to go and unless there is something dramatic it looks as though those who bet at prices tighter than evens are going to have to say…

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Take the 33-1 that UKIP will win Cambourne and Redruth

Take the 33-1 that UKIP will win Cambourne and Redruth

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PaddyPower has put up some more GE2015 single constituency markets including the Cornish seats of Cambourne Redruth which the Tories took off the Lib Dems in 2010. The latest prices are CON 2/5: LD 5/2: LAB 8/1 and UKIP 33/1 As highlighted by Stuart Dickson and others on a previous threads the UKIP option is a good value bet. When it went up it was priced at 40/1 – odds that quickly moved in. What makes this seat particularly interesting…

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