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Author: MikeSmithson

ICM…..Opinium…..Survation….rolling blog on tonight’s final polls

ICM…..Opinium…..Survation….rolling blog on tonight’s final polls

This is what the ballot paper looks like (vis @faisalislam ) pic.twitter.com/D95tRyK1hE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16, 2014 Big news is that all 3 polls have same figures YES 48 NO 52 Graphic showing full details of the Survation/Mail IndyRef poll pic.twitter.com/kdb4z3jlBD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16, 2014 YES price moving out on the Betfair exchange. Two hours ago a £100 winning YES bet would have produced a £450 profit. Now that is £490 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16,…

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How the Betfair #IndyRef price has changed over the past month

How the Betfair #IndyRef price has changed over the past month

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How the IndyRef NO price has moved over past month. pic.twitter.com/5TYmxFxFMt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16, 2014 There really hasn’t been that much movement Coming up this evening ICM for the Scotsman and then Survation for the Mail – both polls online. Surprisingly betting has not been as heavy as on previous days. Everybody is waiting for new polls. Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble Follow @MSmithsonPB

Why Ipsos-MORI’s final #IndyRef poll could be the one to watch out for tomorrow night

Why Ipsos-MORI’s final #IndyRef poll could be the one to watch out for tomorrow night

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It was by far the top pollster at the 2011 Holyrood elections There are at least five final IndyRef polls due out tomorrow. The online firms that use polling panels – YouGov, Panelbase and Opinium, Survation which does online and phone, and an Ipsos-MORI phone poll. It is that last one I’m most looking forward to because of its record in Scotland last time out – the Holyrood elections of 2011. We haven’t seen anything from the firm on the…

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Marf on the IndyRef countdown and Canadians give their backing to the separatists

Marf on the IndyRef countdown and Canadians give their backing to the separatists

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A new poll of Canadians by Leger for the Association for Canadian Studies has just come out and finds Scottish IndyRef YES is supported by 32% to 29%. Interestingly amongst those sampled who are from Quebec the split was 44% YES to 24% NO. The independence referendum that took place in the Province in October 1995 is is the closest comparison to Thursday’s big election in Scotland. Back then YES went into polling day with a lead but voters in…

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The pollsters’ big fear: Thursday could be a disaster for them like 1992

The pollsters’ big fear: Thursday could be a disaster for them like 1992

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GE1992 Even the exit poll got it wrong Martin Boon, head of ICM the pollster with the best track record, has voiced on several occasions in recent weeks that the Scottish referendum could be a disaster for them on the scale of 1992. This was when all the firms totally understated the eventual CON lead of 7.5% and only one of them had a lead at all albeit of just 0.5% For GE1992 was the election when the pollsters got…

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Survation finds that the Tories would be 3% closer without Scotland

Survation finds that the Tories would be 3% closer without Scotland

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The shape of polling to come post referendum? Interesting new Survation poll published overnight by Survation with new Westminster numbers showing for the first time two sets of numbers – both with Scotland and without. The outcome is not surprising but it is good to measure it. Given that generally Survation tends to show higher UKIP figures than most other firms and lower CON ones then the one percent CON deficit should be encouraging. But inevitably the whole political environment…

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Alex Salmond says there are no NO voters, just deferred YES ones

Alex Salmond says there are no NO voters, just deferred YES ones

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You’ve got to be careful making presumptions about voters Given the polls there are three things that YES/Salmond have to do: Ensure there’s a maximum turnout amongst those currently saying YES; try to win over some switchers, and endeavour to ensure lower turnout levels amongst those inclined to NO. It is that last category, I’d suggest, that are most important which is why YES/Salmond have to ensure that what they do doesn’t galvanise those who are against change. I’m far…

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