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Author: MikeSmithson

If Stephen Fisher’s latest GE15 forecast is right LAB could win most seats with just 31.3% of the vote

If Stephen Fisher’s latest GE15 forecast is right LAB could win most seats with just 31.3% of the vote

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Latest GE15 forecast from Oxford's @StephenDFisher has CON winning most votes with LAB most seats pic.twitter.com/B8MJIVMc8W — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 18, 2014 CON with 2.7% more votes in the forecast get 7 fewer seats We’ve been here before and we’ll be here many times in the next six months – the way that on national vote shares at least the “system” seems to favour LAB so much. The latest from Oxford’s Stephen Fisher is in the panel above which…

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Polling analysis: UKIP’s hurting CON even more in the marginals than it was 2 months ago

Polling analysis: UKIP’s hurting CON even more in the marginals than it was 2 months ago

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Latest churn figures from main parties to Farage’s One of the great things about the Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is the sheer scale of it and the size of the overall samples. He tends to operate with samples of 1,000 meaning that the latest batch involved talking on the phone to a total of 11,002 people which is the equivalent to almost a year’s worth of ICM or Ipsos-MORI polls. The benefit is that the aggregate data from all the…

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The polling’s not all good for UKIP: See this worrying data for Farage’s party from YouGov and Ipsos-MORI

The polling’s not all good for UKIP: See this worrying data for Farage’s party from YouGov and Ipsos-MORI

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YouGov polling for the @TheEconomist on perceptions of UKIP. http://t.co/htbjsweQWI pic.twitter.com/stPsFNlqjj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 17, 2014 Last month Ipsos-MORI had them the most disliked & least liked party Could we be seeing the basis for anti-purple tactical voting? In a week that has been dominated by positive GE15 voting numbers for YouGov there’s some other data from firm for the Economist, see top panel, that might make uncomfortable reading. The way the party is perceived by a representative sample…

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Rochester punters unmoved by the CON primary and Cameron visit: UKIP still a 77.5% chance

Rochester punters unmoved by the CON primary and Cameron visit: UKIP still a 77.5% chance

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Raised key local issues of support for small business & job creation with @DavidCameron in #RochesterAndStrood today pic.twitter.com/KX7HcKnExy — Kelly Tolhurst (@KellyTolhurst) October 16, 2014 Is Reckless right to complain about the CON primary? We are just five weeks away from the Rochester & Strood by-election and today David Cameron visited the area to meet local businesses as well as the two women competing to be the CON candidate. Last night the Tories staged hustings and voting papers have now…

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The latest round of Lord Ashcroft’s marginals’ polling finds a 5% CON to LAB swing – slightly more than the 3-4% we’ve been seeing in recent national polls

The latest round of Lord Ashcroft’s marginals’ polling finds a 5% CON to LAB swing – slightly more than the 3-4% we’ve been seeing in recent national polls

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@LordAshcroft latest batch of marginal polling finds 5% swing in CON held seats with majoritiies 3% – 4.8% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 16, 2014 Seat-by-seat results in my latest poll – swings range from 2% (Pudsey, Gloucester) to 8% (Brentford & Isleworth): pic.twitter.com/xEJCDlZdKj — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) October 16, 2014 I love this Tweet from Lord A No doubt Conservative Party internal polling will show a Conservative overall majority #comfortpolling — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) October 16, 2014 Aggregate shares…

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For the second consecutive day YouGov’s UKIP share moves to a record high

For the second consecutive day YouGov’s UKIP share moves to a record high

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Today's YouGov sees UKIP at highest level recorded by firm CON 31 LAB 33 LD 7 UKIP 19 GRN 5 pic.twitter.com/vSbRZITf97 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 16, 2014 Is this going to fade or are we seeing a permanent change? The record polling shares continue for UKIP with the latest YouGov daily poll moving up from yesterday’s 18% to 19% this morning. The latest figures have CON on 31% and LAB on 33% a joint main two party aggregate of just 64% which is a…

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UKIP hit a record 18% from YouGov in the latest daily poll

UKIP hit a record 18% from YouGov in the latest daily poll

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How today's record UKIP share of 18% from YouGov compares with monthly averages from firm during 2014. pic.twitter.com/oIiKJPLco1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 15, 2014 The reverberations from Clacton continue After the strong UKIP performances in the most recent Survation, Ashcrfot and ICM polls YouGov is reporting this morning that the party is on 18% – the highest ever figure from the firm. Survation at the weekend had the party on 25% while ICM on Monday saw UKIP move up…

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