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Author: MikeSmithson

Anybody betting on two general elections this year should first read this analysis by Chris Huhne

Anybody betting on two general elections this year should first read this analysis by Chris Huhne

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The political and legal environment make it very difficult Nearly a year ago the former LD cabinet minister, Chris Huhne, wrote an excellent piece in the Guardian on how the Fixed Term Parliament Act would make it difficult for a second general election shortly after an indecisive outcome – as looks highly likely in May. ” The Fixed-term Parliaments Act means that the prime minister can no longer call an election at a time of his choosing. … Elections are…

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LDs up 3 to 12 – the big mover in this month’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent

LDs up 3 to 12 – the big mover in this month’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent

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CON/LAB/LD all up – UKIP/GREEN down The LDs will be delighted with this poll even though they are only half the level that they got at GE2010 – but this is a bit of progress. UKIP and the Greens are down while LAB and move up. It should emphasised that the long-standing ComRes series of phone polls for the Independent is completely separate from the monthly online surveys from the Indy on Sunday. Tonight’s poll also found that those sampled…

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England ONLY data from latest ComRes poll shows that the Tories have massive struggle south of the border

England ONLY data from latest ComRes poll shows that the Tories have massive struggle south of the border

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Latest ComRes online poll ENGLAND only compared with GE10 England result pic.twitter.com/q7pUA1iaBU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2014 At GE2010 CON led in England by 11.2%. Now just 1% Given that Scotland is operating totally differently at the moment I have been trying to identify the England only poll shares from the main surveys. The chart above is from yesterday’s IoS/S Mirror poll by ComRes and has the Tories just 1% ahead in England. That is ten points short…

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Headline figures of many polls feature views of many more men than women and this could be skewing results

Headline figures of many polls feature views of many more men than women and this could be skewing results

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Fewer women say they are certain to vote and they are more likely to be undecided Just look at the chart which is based on the Populus November aggregate data with a very large overall sample from 9 separate polls. As can be seen male voters account for more than 50% of each party’s support with, not unexpectedly, UKIP showing the biggest divide. What is striking is that although the overall sample is weighted properly for gender balance when it…

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Will Jim Murphy arrest Labour’s slide in the Scottish polls or will it get worse? Enter the competition

Will Jim Murphy arrest Labour’s slide in the Scottish polls or will it get worse? Enter the competition

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pic.twitter.com/Drgab0QAIL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 14, 2014 What’s the December Record/Survation poll going to show? There’s little doubt that the biggest uncertainty about next May’s general election is what’s going to happen in the 41 seats that Labour currently holds in Scotland. If recent polling turns out to be right they could be left with barely half a dozen of them – an outcome that could have a catastrophic impact on the party’s hope to return to power. It…

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Jim Murphy wins Scottish Labour leadership election with 56% of votes on first round

Jim Murphy wins Scottish Labour leadership election with 56% of votes on first round

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.@ScottishLabour will lead us to a fairer Scotland. #ScotLabLeader pic.twitter.com/KtdCauopFf — Jim Murphy (@jimmurphymp) December 13, 2014 Murphy: "You can't have social justice on George Osborne's levels of spending and tax." — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) December 13, 2014 Fighting acceptance speech showed why SNP didn't want @jimmurphymp to be Labour's leader in Scotland — Kevin Maguire (@Kevin_Maguire) December 13, 2014 I like the way in his first Tweet Murphy has shaped the battle with the SNP – is the prize…

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As Scottish LAB prepares to unveil its new leader YouGov has the SNP 20% ahead

As Scottish LAB prepares to unveil its new leader YouGov has the SNP 20% ahead

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The impact this could have on overall GE2015 outcome If YouGov Scottish poll right LAB could lose 34 MPs which could seriously dent efforts to be top party — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 13, 2014 Remember YouGov’s much hyped poll before the IndyRef Eleven days before IndyRef YouGov’s Scottish panel had YES 2% ahead. NO won by 10.5% margin — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 13, 2014 Every single final poll before the Sept 18 IndyRef overstated YES and understated NO…

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