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Author: MikeSmithson

Best tip on PB in the past year: UKIP at 40-1 to win Cambourne and Redruth

Best tip on PB in the past year: UKIP at 40-1 to win Cambourne and Redruth

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To whoever suggested this my thanks I’ve just been reviewing my current open political bets and one, which I’d completely forgotten about, was UKIP to win Cambourne & Redruth at an amazing 40/1. It was placed with PaddyPower a week before Christmas. My recall is that this came out of a discussion one evening and I think Peter the Punter was involved. If I’ve named the wrong person then my apologies. Five months after that bet an Ashcroft poll of…

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The great CON Rochester primary mystery – how the reported turnout of 4,000 became 5,688

The great CON Rochester primary mystery – how the reported turnout of 4,000 became 5,688

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Why aren’t we getting the full numbers like in Totnes in 2009? Totnes CON primary result 2009. All vote detail including spoilt ballots. Why not same for Rochester one? pic.twitter.com/yrKclLtJN7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 24, 2014 The first news that all was not well with the CON Rochester primary was this report, now not on the Spectator site, from the usually well informed Isabel Hardman. How the Speccie's Isabel Hardman first reported Rochester CON primary result. pic.twitter.com/iDo1h9LhCz — Mike…

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UPDATED: Just 5,688 of Rochester’s 70k+ electors took part in the Tory primary and the winner got it by less than 1%

UPDATED: Just 5,688 of Rochester’s 70k+ electors took part in the Tory primary and the winner got it by less than 1%

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@jameschappers Given that each of the 70k+ electors got a reported THREE mailings 5,588 ballots returned still makes it a flop — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014 The earlier Spectator report proved to an underestimate The reported turnout of 4000 in the Rochester Tory primary is a disaster for the party given the efforts put into it pic.twitter.com/bPJAMgYGHq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014 By comparison with low turn-out in Rochester Conservative primary, 16,497 people voted in Totnes…

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After the ComRes Rochester poll UKIP becomes an even firmer betting favourite

After the ComRes Rochester poll UKIP becomes an even firmer betting favourite

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UKIP price moves up sharply on the Betfair exchange Rochester market. Now an 80% chance pic.twitter.com/hzXnTzgtFx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014 Next we’ll see polls with the candidates named Amazing to recall that two and a half weeks ago the Tories had a brief spell as favourite on the Rochester betting markets. Then came the first poll from Survation which had a 9% UKIP lead and now we have the ComRes 13% one. It’s a brave punter who…

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Generally the oldies are the key group for UKIP yet in the ComRes Rochester poll they give Reckless a lead of just 1%

Generally the oldies are the key group for UKIP yet in the ComRes Rochester poll they give Reckless a lead of just 1%

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Most worrying numbers for UKIP from the ComRes Rochester poll: Amongst the oldies Reckless is only 1% ahead pic.twitter.com/jcYxvNYhwO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014 Looking more closely at the numbers Let there be no doubt – the UKIP donor funded ComRes Rochester poll was terrible news for the Tories coming as it has just before the party announces the result of its all-postal primary on who should be the candidate. Looking closely at the ComRes data two demographic…

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On the eve of the CON primary result a UKIP donor funded ComRes Rochester poll has the purples 13% ahead

On the eve of the CON primary result a UKIP donor funded ComRes Rochester poll has the purples 13% ahead

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UKIP campaign HQ Rochester pic.twitter.com/dGnzE4E8SN — PolPics (@PolPics) October 19, 2014 UKIP 43: CON 30: LAB 21: LD 3: GRN 2 Th big by-election news tonight which has already been anticipated by the betting markets is a new UKIP donor funded poll of Rochester & Strood in the Daily Express. The news is not good for the Tories and very good for the purples. The poll has Farage’s party in a better position than it was in the Mail/Survation poll…

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As UKIP surges Ipsos-MORI finds that support for wanting to stay in the EU is at a 23 year high

As UKIP surges Ipsos-MORI finds that support for wanting to stay in the EU is at a 23 year high

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Latest "leave or remain" the EU finding from Ipsos-MORI has remain with 20% lead pic.twitter.com/4fuJ0kHiau — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2014 The Ipsos-MORI "should we leave/stay in the EU" findings reaches a 23 year high for remain pic.twitter.com/ghr6lwUUU6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2014 Could the Kippers be giving the BOOers a bad name? As I often say one of the great things about Ipsos-MORI is that it has been carrying out political polls in the UK for…

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