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Author: MikeSmithson

For the first time in a month the Ashcroft National phone poll has LAB in the lead

For the first time in a month the Ashcroft National phone poll has LAB in the lead

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Ashcroft becomes the 4th pollster in a row to have LAB ahead All the movements are very small and well within the margin of error but it will come as a relief in Miliband towers that the national VI polls seem to be moving back to LAB. The shares vary considerably across the firms no more so than today. Just look at the chart to see the very real differences between Ashcroft and Populus – the latter having a CON+LAB…

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New Survation Scottish poll finds No would have a 6% lead if there was another IndyRef

New Survation Scottish poll finds No would have a 6% lead if there was another IndyRef

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Asked how they'd vote in a new IndyRef 53% of Scots sampled in Survation Record poll said NO – 47%YES — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 16, 2014 Survation’s NO lead could be good news for LAB Polls focused solely on Scotland have been very rare since the country voted to remain in the UK on September 18t. So a new one is special particularly because of the apparent impact that the referendum has had on opinion north of the border….

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How voting patterns can be very different depending on the tactical situation in each constituency

How voting patterns can be very different depending on the tactical situation in each constituency

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What will this mean with the UKIP surge next May? The chart above seeks to look at the mean vote changes of the main parties in different categories of seats based on which came first and second in 2005 and in doing so gives an interesting picture of what happened with, perhaps, some pointers to next May. The LAB vote showed the largest range with, interestingly, the biggest drop-off in support in those seats where it didn’t matter – those…

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Some relief for LAB/Ed with ComRes online as lead moves up to 4%

Some relief for LAB/Ed with ComRes online as lead moves up to 4%

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LAB 34%= CON 30%-1 UKIP 19%= LD 8%+1 GRN 3%-1 So only very slight movement well within the margin of error in voting intentions. The findings from the poll that I’ve highlighted in the chart are on perceptions of Dave which I think get to the heart of the challenges for both leaders. People can’t imagine Ed at Number 10 while Dave is not seen as someone who stand up for working people. Also the perception is that a CON…

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As the Rochester campaign moves into its final frenetic days your chance to predict the outcome in a PB prize competition

As the Rochester campaign moves into its final frenetic days your chance to predict the outcome in a PB prize competition

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Tories in Rochester attacking Mark Reckless for "studying politics at Oxford". Via @genghisthekahn: pic.twitter.com/QkLCpZnb3s — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 14, 2014 Please enter your prediction on the embedded form below. The winner will receive a copy of the new book edited by Philip Cowley and Rob Ford “Sex Lies & The Ballot Box” which was launched earlier this month and has attracted a fair bit of publicity. I am grateful to Nojam.com for helping create a competition entry system that…

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The Tories the big movers in the first week of GE15 Commons Spread betting

The Tories the big movers in the first week of GE15 Commons Spread betting

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Those who “bought” CON on Monday are into profit already It had been a long time coming but the opening of GE15 commons seats spread betting market from Sporting Index was a big moment in the betting build up to next May. To me it is the finest form of political betting because you “trade” commons seats as if they were stocks and shares and the more you are right the more you win. Alas the more you are wrong…

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The big and only real question is how the changes in the national mood are playing out in the marginals

The big and only real question is how the changes in the national mood are playing out in the marginals

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pic.twitter.com/Ddrv9Y1o56 — PolPics (@PolPics) November 14, 2014 Have seats that were in LAB’s grasp now fallen away There’s no doubt that this has been a dramatic polling week with apparently a move from LAB that is changing the long established view that the red team was heading for victory. But these are national polls of 1,000 sample sizes for phone surveys and up to 2,000 for online ones. What we need to see before jumping to conclusions is whether the…

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