What will this mean with the UKIP surge next May?
The chart above seeks to look at the mean vote changes of the main parties in different categories of seats based on which came first and second in 2005 and in doing so gives an interesting picture of what happened with, perhaps, some pointers to next May.
The LAB vote showed the largest range with, interestingly, the biggest drop-off in support in those seats where it didn’t matter – those where the Tories were in first place over Labour in 2005. Notice how in that segment the LDs enjoyed their best performances – where it had no impact on the overall election outcome.
Could it be that the UKIP surge will be like the Cleggasm movers of 2010 – with the purples doing best in terms of votes in the seats least likely to change hands?
In seats where the yellows were fighting Labour there was no sign of any anti-Labour tactical voting from Tory supporters. In LD/LAB seats both the Tories and Labour did better than average whereas in LAB/LD seats the vote share for Clegg’s party rose by only 0.4 percent – half the national average.
In CON-LD battle-grounds there doesn’t seem to be much evidence of any new tactical voting by Labour supporters to stop the blues making progress.
All of this, was, of course, then. It could all be very different on May 7th as is being suggested in Lord Ashcroft’s constituency polling.