His gaffes are becoming a big issue It does not take long searching on YouTube to find compilation videos like the one above showing gaffes by 80 year old Joe Biden. As we look forward to WH2024 the incumbent’s age is becoming the big issue. With the President due to make his state of the Union address this evening there’s new polling out which suggests that his hopes of serving a second term are not being welcomed by Democrat voters….
One of the great strengths that Liz Trust has is her popularity with the Conservative membership. This was seen in the months and years leading up to the July-September 2022 leadership election when she regularly topped the monthly Conservative Home survey of the most favoured Cabinet ministers. If there was to be another ballot, and it’s far from certain that will be the case, it is probably best to assume that she would have similar levels of support. In the…
Deltapoll has it at 18% Even though there is a big difference in the polling lead from the two surveys out this afternoon the message is the same – the Tories have a mountain to climb if they are to get into striking distance from LAB at the general election. Still the big thing that Sunak has on his side is time and he has the sole decision on what the election date will be. Given the state of polls…
This is by far the biggest day of industrial action that we have seen in the NHS since it’s foundation nearly 70 years ago. The issue, like with the other big public areas where action is taking place, is the unions are not wanting to accept a pay increase that does not match inflation. They argue that to do otherwise would be accepting what is a pay cut. Sunak has been very firm about his resolution to fight these demands….
This is a betting market that I’ve not looked at before and it is very difficult to argue that the current odds are wrong. There is little doubt that Johnson, given half a chance, would love to be back at Number 10. The question is whether or not he is going to be given that chance. At the moment that seems unlikely. Sunak is getting more established at Number 10 having just completed his first 100 days. A worry for…
This week Sunak completed his first 100 days in Downing Street and looks pretty solid to continue there until the general election. While the latest batch of polls has three surveys with the deficit in teens the overall picture is still fairly daunting for Tory strategists. To maintain a majority the party probably needs a lead of 5% over LAB and that seems a very remote possibility. The fact is that in spite of two leader changes the polls are…
Not enough of the GE2019 CON vote is going LAB The above chart is based on data from tonight’s YouGov poll for the Times and seeks to show how the 2019 Tory vote is currently viewing the next election. The big worry I would have if I was Starmer is that the party is not picking up enough of the Tory vote from last time. Getting just 12% of them points to a real struggle next time when one would…
Looking at the detail from the world cloud then the views of leave voters seem to have changed more than the reviews of remain voters. That fits with other polling which is now suggesting that it will be about 58 to 42 Remain if there was another referendum. But there isn’t going to be another vote and the most interesting feature head is how will the presumed incoming Starmer government deal with Europe? My guess is that it will be…