Peter Mandelson could well be right – LAB’s poll lead is artificial
I happen to agree with Mandelson and I don’t believe that the election will see party vote shares in line with what the polls are currently predicting. A big factor, as I have pointed out before, is that LAB’s poll lead is very much driven by those GE2019 CON voters who are now saying “don’t know”. I still think that Starmer will be the PM after the election but his majority (if indeed there is one) will be much smaller…
Ken Clarke is dead right on the Rwanda bill
Punters largely staying with Trump in the WH2024 betting
I’m less sure and have a small bet that he won’t be the nominee There are so many issues and court cases concerning Trump that it is very hard to monitor. One that we could see a resolution on quite soon is the Supreme Court decision in the Colorado case where it was argued that because of his involvement in the January 6th 2021 events Trump should be banned from the election. I’ve just got a feeling that the “Deep…
The Rape case decision will make Trump’s WH2024 campaign that much harder
The odds on Trump regaining the White House in November’s election have eased a bit following the decision by the jury in the Carroll court defamation case. The decision by the jury that Trump has to pay Carroll $84m could undermine his position with voters across the country and punters have reacted accordingly. To be facing an opponent who can be branded a rapist makes Biden’s re-election task easier although Trump is still the betting favourite. What I find extraordinary…
November the Betfair favourite for the General Election
There is little doubt that this market is going to see a lot of activity in the coming months because Sunak or his successor has to go to the country before the end of January 2025. My view is that whoever is PM will try to hold on as long as possible and that the election date will be after September but who knows? The argument against going in November or later it’s that the British summertime has ended and…
Trump remains a 49% chance of regaining the White House
Although is is looking more likely that Trump will win I’m not tempted to bet for two reasons – the odds seem to tight and there’s a risk that the courts or his health could become a big obstacle. On the latter Trump’s lifestyle does not appear to be good for longevity. He takes little exercise and his diet could be much much better. Mike Smithson
The detail from YouGov’s CON 20% poll
More terrible Tory numbers so close to the election The most frightening figure for the Tories is that just 35% of GE2019 CON voters still back the party.