YouGov on views of who should be allowed in Via @OliverCooper Views of different sorts of immigration from YouGov pic.twitter.com/MSeQ0wDlA1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 21, 2014
A bit of Xmas cheer for the LDs Earlier in the month a big divide appeared between the huge joint university initiative, the British Election Study, and Lord Ashcroft’s polling of individual CON facing LD held seats. The former pointed to disaster while aggregate data from latter’s latest batch found that the yellows were 9% ahead. The reason, of course, is that you get very different responses in these seats when you ask voters, as Lord A does, to think…
The trend in the fortnightly Opinium polls for the Observer pic.twitter.com/CTkxBZbi4f — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 20, 2014 LAB lead now 7% with Opinium LAB takes 7% lead in latet Opinium poll for Observer LAB 36+2 CON 29= UKIP 16-3 LD 6= GRN 5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 20, 2014 Clegg and Miliband trail badly in latest Opinium approval rating for Observer pic.twitter.com/5LPz0hqwCJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 20, 2014 YouGov has LAB 2% ahead with, as per usual, CON in the 30s LAB 2%…
Look at the very high proportion of non-voters With Green growth being the polling story of the week I thought the time was right to look at where expressions of support for the party are coming from. The chart above shows the breakdown from the last batch of Lord Ashcroft’s marginals polling where there’s a big enough sample to look at subsets. For me the striking feature is the large number who did not vote for any of the main…
St. James on Kingston upon Thames (Con defence) Result: Conservative 1,123 (43%), Liberal Democrat 865 (33%), Labour 355 (14%), UKIP 206 (8%), Green 71 (3%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 258 (10%) Ollerton on Nottinghamshire (Lab defence) Result: Labour 1,171 (56% -2%), Conservative 533 (26% +4%), UKIP 347 (17% -3%), Liberal Democrat 24 (1%, no candidate last time) Labour HOLD with a majority of 638 (31%) on a swing of 3% from Labour to Conservative
Warnings about the dangers of hung parliaments might have less resonance One of the reasons why the LDs went into coalition in 2010 because they wanted to show that multi-party governments were possible. This followed an intensive end to the GE10 campaign when much of the Tory focus was designed increase worries and about what having an inconclusive outcome might mean. Well four and a half years in the coalition has survived and there appears to be not too much…
pic.twitter.com/WJ3lPQIUPB — PolPics (@PolPics) December 14, 2014 Following poor results for LAB from Ipsos-MORI & Lord Ashcroft YouGov ends the week with the party 5% ahead LAB lead moves to 5% in today's YouGov poll for the Sun LAB 35%, CON 30%, UKIP 16%, GRNS 8%, LD 6%2 Best for EdM's party for months — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2014 Four and a half months from the big day The week before Christmas is always an intensive one for…
St. James on Kingston upon Thames (Con defence) Result of council at last election (2014): Conservatives 28, Liberal Democrats 18, Labour 2 (Conservative majority of 8) Result of ward at last election (2014) : Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,250, 1,188, 1,082 Liberal Democrats 729, 719, 696 Labour 598, 494, 485 United Kingdom Independence Party 386, 361 Green 212 British National Party 100 Trade Unionist and Socialist 34 Candidates duly nominated: Jack CHEETHAM (Con), Stephen DUNKLING (Lab), Alex NELSON (Green), Ben…