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For the Tories defending what they won in England in 2010 is the overwhelming objective

For the Tories defending what they won in England in 2010 is the overwhelming objective

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Commons research paper http://t.co/4lfyEygikj on GE10 result In England CON was 11.4% ahead pic.twitter.com/MKjtBOp2sE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 25, 2014 Why England only poll data will be so important The above is the result for England at the last election and shows how well the Tories did there and the scale of the challenge defending their position in May. Overall they “won” England by nearly 3m votes with a percentage lead over LAB of 11.4%. In terms of eats they…

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For your Christmas Day entertainment – Guess the Constituency

For your Christmas Day entertainment – Guess the Constituency

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The PB Xmas Quiz. Guess the constituency. To see detailed pics go https://t.co/dseD1gqEjI pic.twitter.com/B6KEIe0OgA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 25, 2014 Right then folks, as there are no local by-elections today and by the end of today you are all liable to be dozing off not in the middle of Her Majesty’s speech I hope (after all those betting markets were suspended earlier in the month thanks to some unusual betting patterns) it’s time to get those old grey cells into working…

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Online Polls, Big Stories, Shaky Foundations

Online Polls, Big Stories, Shaky Foundations

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A special column from former ICM polling head, Nick Sparrow Over the last 3 years the British Population Survey has been monitoring people who respond to online surveys and comparing them to the population as a whole, in terms of detailed demographics and attitudinal variables. It is a massive survey involving 6-8,000 face-to-face in home interviews per month. In an article published on the Research-Live web site Steve Abbott describes some of the important findings. Analysis suggests that online survey…

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Well done to the main phone pollsters for now reporting England only numbers

Well done to the main phone pollsters for now reporting England only numbers

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With Scotland’s politics now operating in a very different pattern to the rest of the country I have being lobbying the main telephone posters to issue England only data with their main voting intention polls. The result is that for December we now have a full range of England phone poll data which I have reproduced in the 2 charts above. What is very striking is the very considerable difference between Ipsos-MORI and the 3 other phone posters. Quite why…

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It could be that GE2015 is determined by Scottish IndyRef NO voters who are currently undecided about GE15

It could be that GE2015 is determined by Scottish IndyRef NO voters who are currently undecided about GE15

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Chart showing how many more IndyRef NO voters than YES ones are still undecided about GE15 pic.twitter.com/T7yWQBQKpa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 22, 2014 The above stats are tucked on one of the spreadsheets for the latest Scottish poll from Survation for the Daily Record. What is striking is the very different don’t know levels on Westminster voting intention between those who voted YES in the referendum and those who VOTED NO. My reading is that a significant proportion of…

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Blow for Jim Murphy as first Scottish poll following his election has LAB trailing by 24 points

Blow for Jim Murphy as first Scottish poll following his election has LAB trailing by 24 points

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New Scottish poll for D Record has SNP with a commanding lead SNP 48%  LAB 24%  CON 16% LD 5% UKIP 4%  GRN 1% http://t.co/y4VurJDCBG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 22, 2014 Survation Record poll shows scale of his challenge With LAB’s fortunes on May 7th so tied up with how the party performs in what was its Scottish stronghold there’s a big blow this morning with the publication of the December Scotland poll for the Daily Record. If this were to be repeated at the General…

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