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More than a quarter of UKIP voters would prefer a LAB government and fewer than a third want a CON one

More than a quarter of UKIP voters would prefer a LAB government and fewer than a third want a CON one

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More polling that undermines notion that UKIP voters are "Tories on holiday" A quarter would prefer LAB government pic.twitter.com/bBvTsAd2iX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 3, 2015 Tonight’s poll Tonight's Opinium poll for Observer sees LAB lead down from 7% to 1% CON 32+3 LAB 33-3 LD 8+2 UKIP 17+1 GRN 4%-1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 3, 2015 The tend in Opinium polls for the Observer pic.twitter.com/6hcx13yGVW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 3, 2015 Important to remember that GE15 not a national party popularity contest – but…

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The SNP continues to be the big mover in the commons seats’ spread markets – up ten seats in five weeks

The SNP continues to be the big mover in the commons seats’ spread markets – up ten seats in five weeks

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SNP continues to surge on Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR GE15 commons spread market pic.twitter.com/F015XHOw9i — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 2, 2015 The continuation of strong polling for the SNP before Christmas has reinforced the move upwards in the latest spread prices from Sporting Index. It is now exactly ten seats higher than it was in the last week in November. Clearly this is driven by the polls and the absence of bad news for Sturgeon and her party. The fact that…

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In the super-marginals main party GOTV operations will give them a big advantage

In the super-marginals main party GOTV operations will give them a big advantage

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Wikimedia How UKIP & the Greens are likely to be squeezed Those who have been actively involved in elections will recognise what is going on in the picture above. As voters arrive at the polling station they are asked by the two ladies with the rosettes (tellers) for their polling number which is printed on their polling cards. These numbers then get taken to local committee rooms where they are keyed into computers which check them against canvas and other…

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Why the Tories could need to be 10% ahead in England and Wales just to stand still

Why the Tories could need to be 10% ahead in England and Wales just to stand still

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What happened at GE2010 when you exclude Scotland One of the reasons why the latest Electoral Calculus projection, see previous thread, appeared to be so good for LAB was the way Scotland and England/Wales were treated. This is the response I got from Martin Baxter on the computation:- “The overall prediction is based on both the national (GB) polls and the Scotland-specific polls. For Scottish seats, the prediction is just based on the Scottish Westminster VI polls, and for England…

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Even though Baxter has SNP taking 47 of the 59 Scottish seats his latest projection has LAB just 5 short of a majority

Even though Baxter has SNP taking 47 of the 59 Scottish seats his latest projection has LAB just 5 short of a majority

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Latest from Electoral Calculus http://t.co/yOyYu1w1VO has LAB 5 short of majority pic.twitter.com/3r8BdjnsmU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 31, 2014 I can’t quite work out how Martin Baxter is handling his monthly predictions given the sharp rise of the SNP. From his latest data, out last night, he appears to have made his usual national computation and then over-ridden the Scottish seat data with his Scotland specific seat calculation. The result, as can be seen, is that in the model the…

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Henry G Manson on Tony Blair’s criticism of Miliband’s election strategy

Henry G Manson on Tony Blair’s criticism of Miliband’s election strategy

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Tony Blair's attack on Miliband's strategy http://t.co/J8QUkmlb4x pic.twitter.com/FFvOdb5FZ9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 31, 2014 Labour could win a different way in 2015 Tony Blair has not offered Ed Miliband the same courtesy It is a sign of desperation that Blair has intervened publicly with The Economist in this way. His ‘wing’ of the party is a ragged mess. Many closest supporters and former ministers are no longer MPs, a leadership contest that should have been a shoo-in for David…

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How LAB was completely under-rated by the betting markets as polls opened on May 6th 2010

How LAB was completely under-rated by the betting markets as polls opened on May 6th 2010

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It finished CON 306, LAB 258, LD 57 Quite often in political betting a narrative builds up about the infallibility of the betting markets. That somehow because punters are wagering their own hard-earned cash their judgement is better. In the table above are the commons seat prices at 7am on the morning of May 6th 2010 just as voting started in the general election. Those who had had the foresight to “buy” LAB on SportingIndex at 219 seats would have…

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UKIP are betting favourites to win in just five seats at GE2015

UKIP are betting favourites to win in just five seats at GE2015

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The bookies make UKIP the favourite to win in just 5 seats at GE2015. See list pic.twitter.com/lJ3MlN9KRw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 30, 2014 Given the way that the purples dominated the political narrative for a large part of 2014 it comes as something of a surprise to observe, as Antifrank does on his excellent blog, that UKIP is clear favourite in just five seats, all of them currently held by the Tories. The constituencies are listed in the table…

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