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A week into the new year and the betting markets still very uncertain about what’s going to happen

A week into the new year and the betting markets still very uncertain about what’s going to happen

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First week's trading on SportingIndex http://t.co/8brmIVQzQn commons seats almost no change on 2014. LAB by 5 MPs pic.twitter.com/HDm1jKrzTc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 8, 2015 Only change a slight uptick for SNP Yesterday evening I was at the BBC offices next to parliament to record a discussion with Ipsos-MORI boss, Ben Page, about the coming election and what’s going to happen. This is due to go out on Radio 4’s “The Week in Westminster” programme at 11am on Saturday morning….

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If UKIP is a bit on the wane then maybe there are some good bets out there

If UKIP is a bit on the wane then maybe there are some good bets out there

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A look at the seats where the purples are favourite Great Yarmouth From @LordAshcroft Constituency polling. http://t.co/sY9l3rAerf Great Yarmouth where UKIP is 5/4 favourite to win pic.twitter.com/6PKHWbEhbb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2015 Thanet South Thanet South polling from @LordAshcroft where UKIP's Nigel Farage is odds-on favourite to win pic.twitter.com/FBmz8yhp7Y — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2015 Thurrock @LordAshcroft polling of the 3 way marginal of Thurrock where UKIP 5/6 betting favourite pic.twitter.com/xRAsKWSAcV — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2015…

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Forget PMQ reactions – the big story this afternoon is the killing in Paris

Forget PMQ reactions – the big story this afternoon is the killing in Paris

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Gunmen responsible for deadly attack on #CharlieHebdo are still on the loose, @fhollande says. http://t.co/sBOkqaRg1Y pic.twitter.com/km88JvZmCa — CNN (@CNN) January 7, 2015 RIP Charb. Assassinated over a drawing today #CharlieHebdo pic.twitter.com/X9SosWGEBf — Ricardo Coutada (@rcoutada) January 7, 2015

YouGov’s UKIP share falls to lowest level since October – and this is with the party being prompted

YouGov’s UKIP share falls to lowest level since October – and this is with the party being prompted

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Are the purples starting to fade as we get closer? http://t.co/xYOsg7KTOD pic.twitter.com/bOZQzTY5Jc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2015 Today's YouGov poll for the Sun sees LAB and CON level pegging CON 33 LAB 33 LD 7 UKIP 13 GRN 8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2015 October 6th – last time that UKIP were as low as 13% with @YouGov pic.twitter.com/XfMClrsm8D — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2015 On UKIP's lowish numbers we need to see whether this is supported by other polling –…

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General Election year polling opens with LAB having small leads and a big divide over the Greens

General Election year polling opens with LAB having small leads and a big divide over the Greens

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The first two polls of 2015 pic.twitter.com/fzK2c1eIFp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 6, 2015 The first two pollsters to report at start of 2010 had CON leads of 9% & 10%. At GE10 CON vote lead was 7.3% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 6, 2015 YouGov now follow Survation & ComRes in prompting for UKIP So the the general election year polling begins with LAB on small leads from the online pollsters which poll most often, Populus and YouGov. Not…

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Main party switchers to UKIP in the key battlegrounds represent just on 11% of the overall vote

Main party switchers to UKIP in the key battlegrounds represent just on 11% of the overall vote

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Putting UKIP’s polling into perspective Interesting that the two peaks came after the UKIP success in the Euros and then just after the Douglas Carswell defection. These figures are quite a bit lower than the normal shares for the purples that we see. This is because they are confined to 2010 main party voters only. Balance of support came from OTH or “did not vote”. Secondly they are from the key CON-LAB marginals where you’d expect UKIP to be squeezed…

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