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Local By-Elections on Local Election Day 2017 (T- 35 days and counting until GE 2017)

Local By-Elections on Local Election Day 2017 (T- 35 days and counting until GE 2017)

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Today, as well as the elections to the English counties, Scottish councils, Welsh councils (of which I am currently dozing in order to be bright eyed and bushy tailed at anything up to 4.00am tomorrow morning) and the new Metro Mayor elections (not forgetting Doncaster of course), there are 107 local by-elections up and down the country in those areas which do not have any local elections. Now clearly 107 is way too many for a single preview so here…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Firing the starting gun, Brexit rows & where is the LD surge?

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Firing the starting gun, Brexit rows & where is the LD surge?

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On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Adam Drummond of Opinium and Adam Payne of Business Insider UK to discuss the political state of play as the General Election campaign proper kicks off. The panel mull over the latest developments in the campaign, including Theresa May’s comments about EU interference in British democracy and Tim Farron’s recent run-in with a Leave voter on the stump. Topics discussed also include the lack of a Lib Dem surge in the opinion…

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For LAB the onjective is to avert a Tory landslide – but how

For LAB the onjective is to avert a Tory landslide – but how

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Don Brind explores the options For many years Theresa May’s main claim to fame was her bravery in telling the Tories they’re the Nasty Party. If you doubt that nastiness lives on in Toryland despite the election of the vicar’s daughter look no further than the Defence Secretary Michael Fallon. He is the attack dog whistled up by Lynton Crosby to spread a bit of ugliness. There is no one on the Labour side who specialises in Fallonic thuggery and…

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Voters want May to negotiate Brexit and not Corbyn and that’s all you need to know

Voters want May to negotiate Brexit and not Corbyn and that’s all you need to know

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A new poll shows that UK adults overwhelmingly trust Theresa May rather than Jeremy Corbyn to negotiate Brexit by a margin of 51% to 13%. All else is secondary writes Keiran Pedley. On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast (see below) I spoke to Chris Hanretty from the University of East Anglia about events in France and the prospect of a Tory landslide in June. As part of the show, I also unveiled some new polling from our Polling Matters /…

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A week tonight and we have 2017’s first big set of elections

A week tonight and we have 2017’s first big set of elections

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Harry Hayfield looks forward 7 days So as there are no local by-elections this week, here’s the final part of my estimates for the local elections in Wales and Scotland. Wales As for the estimates for the English counties, I had a look at the by-elections in Wales since the referendum, tallied the changes on 2012 and noted if the council had voted to REMAIN or LEAVE and made the following observation. In REMAIN councils, the change was Lab -6%,…

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PB/Polling Matters podcast: Is a Tory landslide inevitable? And Vive le pollsters!

PB/Polling Matters podcast: Is a Tory landslide inevitable? And Vive le pollsters!

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  On this week’s podcast Keiran returns and is joined by Chris Hanretty from the University of East Anglia. Keiran and Chris celebrate the excellent performance of French pollsters last weekend and discuss the implications of Macron and Le Pen making the second round. Is a Macron victory now inevitable? What happens next and would a British version of ‘En Marche’ be successful? Keiran and Chris also discuss the seeming inevitability of a Conservative landslide in June and what might…

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Gloomy local by-election news for LAB in the week a General Election was called

Gloomy local by-election news for LAB in the week a General Election was called

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Blacon on Chester West and Chester (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Labour 1,556 (59% +1%), Conservative 574 (22% +4%), Independent 434 (16%, no candidate at last election), Liberal Democrat 70 (3%, no candidate at last election) Labour HOLD with a majority of 982 (37%) on a swing of 1.5% from Lab to Con (notional swing of 1% from Lab to Lib Dem, 0.5% from Lib Dem to Con) Kenton East on Harrow (Lab defence, death of sitting member)…

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Two local by-elections tonight – both LAB defences

Two local by-elections tonight – both LAB defences

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Blacon on Chester West and Chester (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 38, Conservatives 36, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 1) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 3,579, 3,349, 3,119 (58%) Conservatives 1,109, 979, 941 (18%) United Kingdom Independence Party 1,054, 1,037, 805 (17%) Green Party 482, 303, 227 (8%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 95,455 (49%) LEAVE 98,082 (51%) on a turnout of 75% Candidates duly…

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