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PB/Polling Matters podcast: Is a Tory landslide inevitable? And Vive le pollsters!

PB/Polling Matters podcast: Is a Tory landslide inevitable? And Vive le pollsters!

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  On this week’s podcast Keiran returns and is joined by Chris Hanretty from the University of East Anglia. Keiran and Chris celebrate the excellent performance of French pollsters last weekend and discuss the implications of Macron and Le Pen making the second round. Is a Macron victory now inevitable? What happens next and would a British version of ‘En Marche’ be successful? Keiran and Chris also discuss the seeming inevitability of a Conservative landslide in June and what might…

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Gloomy local by-election news for LAB in the week a General Election was called

Gloomy local by-election news for LAB in the week a General Election was called

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Blacon on Chester West and Chester (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Labour 1,556 (59% +1%), Conservative 574 (22% +4%), Independent 434 (16%, no candidate at last election), Liberal Democrat 70 (3%, no candidate at last election) Labour HOLD with a majority of 982 (37%) on a swing of 1.5% from Lab to Con (notional swing of 1% from Lab to Lib Dem, 0.5% from Lib Dem to Con) Kenton East on Harrow (Lab defence, death of sitting member)…

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Two local by-elections tonight – both LAB defences

Two local by-elections tonight – both LAB defences

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Blacon on Chester West and Chester (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 38, Conservatives 36, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 1) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 3,579, 3,349, 3,119 (58%) Conservatives 1,109, 979, 941 (18%) United Kingdom Independence Party 1,054, 1,037, 805 (17%) Green Party 482, 303, 227 (8%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 95,455 (49%) LEAVE 98,082 (51%) on a turnout of 75% Candidates duly…

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Latest locals: CON gains from LAB in Middlesbrough but makes heavy weather against the Greens in Dorset

Latest locals: CON gains from LAB in Middlesbrough but makes heavy weather against the Greens in Dorset

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Coulby Newham on Middlesbrough (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Conservatives 501 (38% +12%), Labour 468 (35% -3%), Independent 318 (24% +1%), Green Party 32 (2%, no candidate at last election) Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 33 (3%) on a swing of 7.5% from Lab to Con Piddle Valley on West Dorset (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Conservative 303 (61% -8%), Green Party 195 (39% +19%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 108 (22%)…

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Local By-Election Previews : Maundy Thursday 2017 (T -3 weeks until Locals 2017)

Local By-Election Previews : Maundy Thursday 2017 (T -3 weeks until Locals 2017)

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  Coulby Newham on Middlesbrough (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 33, Independents 9, Conservatives 4 (Labour majority of 20) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,464, 1,291, 1,079 (38%) Conservative 996 (26%) Independents 893, 762, 758 (23%) Liberal Democrat 524 (14%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 21,181 (34%) LEAVE 40,177 (66%) on a turnout of 65% Candidates duly nominated: Emma Alberti (Green), Mike Allen (Ind), Annalise…

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Len McCluskey thinks LAB could be in government after GE2020 – a pipe dream or a possibility?

Len McCluskey thinks LAB could be in government after GE2020 – a pipe dream or a possibility?

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Don Brind on where the UNITE boss is right and where wrong Len McCluskey is right. Labour could be back in government as a result of the 2020 General Election. I agree with the Unite leader that while there’s little chance of Labour winning the election there’s a decent chance that the Tories will lose it. McCluskey is rather more emphatic than me: “ I don’t think the Tories will win the next election. They might be the largest party…

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Richard Nabavi on Emmanuel Macron’s Cohabitation Conundrum

Richard Nabavi on Emmanuel Macron’s Cohabitation Conundrum

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If the polls are to be believed, in a few weeks’ time Emmanuel Macron will be president of France, having easily seen off Marine Le Pen in the second round of voting. Pundits will opine that populism has been defeated, and chaos averted. This will be a premature verdict. Macron’s rise to pole position in French politics has been an astonishing one. He has never held elected office before; indeed the presidential contest is the first election he has ever…

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Terrible night for UKIP in latest locals losing the two seats it won last time. LDs & CON the gainers

Terrible night for UKIP in latest locals losing the two seats it won last time. LDs & CON the gainers

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Elmhurst on Aylesbury Vale (UKIP defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Liberal Democrat 785 (64% +38%), Labour 151 (12% -10%), Conservative 147 (12% -9%), United Kingdom Independence Party 111 (9% -14%), Green Party 43 (4% -4%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from United Kingdom Independence Party with a majority of 634 (52%) on a swing of 24% from Labour to Liberal Democrat (26% from UKIP to Lib Dem) Walcot on Bath and North East Somerset (Lib Dem defence, resignation of sitting member)…

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