At 10.00pm this evening, a year ago, the Prime Minister’s gamble backfired. Whether this was due to the polls being misleading from the start (indicating a Con lead of 25% at the start of the campaign), the so called “youthquake” (identified by the Britsh Election Study) or reasons best summed up by Brenda from Bristol of “Oh, no, not another one!” we simply cannot tell, but we do know this. The Conservative overall majority was lost and if it had…
Aylsham on Broadland (Con defence) Result: Lib Dem 1,018 (46% +15% on last time), Con 865 (39% +7% on last time), Lab 328 (15% -7% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -15%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 153 (7%) on a swing of 4% from Con to Lib Dem) Cowfold, Shermanbury and West Grinstead on Horsham (Con defence) Result: Con 661 (68% -3% on last time), Lab 158 (16%, no candidate last time), Lib…
Skerton West on Lancaster (Lab defence) Result: Lab 587 (58% +21% on last time), Con 279 (27% +1% on last time), Lib Dem 95 (9%, Green 59 (6% -3% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -20%, No Ind candidate this time -7%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 308 (31%) on a swing of 10% from Con to Lab University and Scotsforth Rural on Lancaster (Lab and Green defence) Result: Emboldened denotes elected Labour 518, 423 (48% +13%…
Theresa May had a bit of a cheek turning up in Wandsworth and claiming a victory where the Tories came within a whisker of losing their jewel in the crown council Another hundred votes in the right places would have put Labour in power after forty years in opposition. A close examination of the results show that n St Mary’s Park the bottom Tory was a mere 3 votes clear of Labour’s top candidate and the second just 16 head…
Harry Hayfield on Thursday’s West Tyrone Parliamentary By-Election (Sinn Fein defence) This by-election is the 33rd by-election since the 2010 general election and is the 25th occasion when a by-election has been caused by an MP resigning their seat (75%). This compares with the eight years before then (2002 – 2010) when out of 21 by-elections 11 were caused by resigning MP’s (52%) and the reason for this? Fewer and fewer MP’s are dying in office. Indeed during the 1966…
Highland on Perth and Kinross (Con defence) Result: Con 1,907 (47% +2% on last time), Lab 239 (6% no candidate last time), Lib Dem 78 (2% -1% on last time), Green 104 (3% -1% on last time), Ind (Taylor) 280 (7%), Ind (Baykal) 12 (0%), SNP 1,466 (36% +1% on last time) Conservative lead over SNP of 441 (9%) on a swing of 0.5% from SNP to Con Total Independent vote: 292 (7% -4% on last time) No candidate elected…
On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley is joined by Matt Singh (Number Cruncher) and Adam Drummond (Opinium) to discuss: 1) Why voting intention polls and perceptions of party leaders seem to be moving in different directions 2) Reactions to the Windrush scandal and how pollsters deal with sensitive questions around immigration 3) An exclusive survey from Opinium for PB that shows 1 in 10 Brits believe the Russian military accusation that Britain staged the Douma chemical attack in…
St. Olaves on St. Edmundsbury (Lab defence) Result: Lab 365 (59% +27% on last time), Con 150 (24% -7% on last time), Ind 77 (12% -26% on last time), Lib Dem 31 (5%, no candidate last time) Labour HOLD with a majority of 215 (35%) on a swing of 17% from Con to Lab (26.5% from Ind to Lab) Middleton, Cheney on South Northamptonshire (Con defence) Result: Con 391 (42% -22% on last time), Lib Dem 316 (34%, no candidate…