At 10.00pm this evening, a year ago, the Prime Minister’s gamble backfired. Whether this was due to the polls being misleading from the start (indicating a Con lead of 25% at the start of the campaign), the so called “youthquake” (identified by the Britsh Election Study) or reasons best summed up by Brenda from Bristol of “Oh, no, not another one!” we simply cannot tell, but we do know this. The Conservative overall majority was lost and if it had not been for saving grace of twelve Conservatives gains in Scotland (all from the SNP), the Prime Minister would not have been able to govern with the DUP and the whole history of the UK from that moment could have changed.
But what has happened in that year since? Well, completely unnoticed by everyone (save us who have a vested interest) 397,562 real votes have been placed into no fewer than several hundred real ballot boxes across the United Kingdom electing no less than 255 real councillors, and in those 255 by-elections the people of the United Kingdom have told us this: “Thank you, UKIP, and good night”
Yes, if proof was ever needed that the age of UKIP is over, then here it is. UKIP in the year since the general election, have seen their vote share fall by 10.48% compared to last time.In fact it is even worse than that for them. Last time, in these 255 by-elections, UKIP had a candidate in 88 of them (35%), now they only had a candidate in 69 of them (27%).
It is now that I am expecting those surviving UKIP supporters to declare “Now come on, all parties have problems fielding candidates in the year after a general!” to which I would reply “Then please explain why there are 90 more Conservatives, 89 more Labour, 110 more Liberal Democrats, 50 more Greens, 21 more Independents and even 9 more Local Independents standing than last time” and add that compared to last time UKIP are the only major party who are fielding fewer candidates than last time.
And what of the main parties? Well, it’s clear that the Labour and the Liberal Democrats are picking up the UKIP spoils, to which of course Labour supporters in Mansfield will be screaming “But we lost Mansfield to the Conservatives!” and Conservative supporters will be screaming “But we lost Oxford West to the Lib Dems!” so let’s look at those changes through the prism of the referendum.
In those councils that voted REMAIN Con +2%, Lab +5%, Lib Dem +6%, UKIP -6%, in those councils that voted LEAVE Con +3%, Lab +6%, Lib Dem +7%, UKIP -11% and yet these changes have a very marked difference in seat changes
Well, there’s your answer. I cannot say what answer it is but that’s the answer the UK is giving a year since that general election.