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An interim government would need more than just a PM

An interim government would need more than just a PM

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There has been much speculation in recent weeks about the possibility of the opposition parties and ex-Tory refuseniks coming together to oust this government and install an interim government, tasked with a very limited role of negotiating an Article 50 extension, promptly followed by a GE. (A variant of this proposal would have the interim government stay in office long enough to call a second EU referendum, but that seems vanishingly unlikely). Like many suggestions for resolving the impasse, this…

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How strong is Trump’s Senate firewall?

How strong is Trump’s Senate firewall?

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A guest slot from Fishing Almost three years ago, a few days after Trump was elected, I wrote a thread on this site saying that the Democrats would be able to find an excuse to impeach Trump if they gained control of the House in 2018 for that reason, 2019 would be the peak year of danger for Trump in this respect but I expected that the Senate would acquit, because of its likely Republican majority following the Midterms. Given…

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September 2019 Local By-Election Review

September 2019 Local By-Election Review

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Votes Cast, Share, Change (in votes and seats) Conservatives 9,961 votes (34% unchanged on last time) winning 9 seats (unchanged on last time) Liberal Democrats 8,000 votes (27% +12% on last time) winning 4 seats (+2 seats on last time) Labour 7,914 votes (27% -7% on last time) winning 6 seats (+1 seat on last time) Scottish National Party 1,202 votes (4% unchanged on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Green Party 1,170 votes (4% -1% on…

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Local By-Election Summary : August 2019

Local By-Election Summary : August 2019

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Votes Cast, % Share, Change in votes and Seats : August 2019 Liberal Democrats 6,218 votes (33.94% +5.23% on last time) winning 5 seats (+1 seat on last time) Conservatives 5,362 votes (29.27% -2.66% on last time) winning 2 seats (-1 on last time) Labour 2,951 votes (16.11% -10.04% on last time) winning 0 seats (-1 on last time) Scottish National Party 1,582 votes (8.63% +2.88% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time) Local Independents 824 votes…

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Boris Johnson PM : His first electoral tests – the local by-elections

Boris Johnson PM : His first electoral tests – the local by-elections

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Analysis from Harry Hayfield Many people have said the reason why Boris Johnson was elected Conservative leader, and Prime Minister, was to stop one thing and one thing alone from happening, and that one was Conservative voters flooding to the Brexit Party and following his consistent statements of “We are leaving on October 31st 2019” local by-elections since his election do seem to indicate that is precisely what has happened. Now, I will admit there have only been eight local…

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Why they just don’t put up a hard border in Ireland

Why they just don’t put up a hard border in Ireland

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From Topping, who served there with the British Army during the Troubles It was sobering listening to Simon Byrne, a bluff Northerner and current chief constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI), this morning on the radio opining on the practicalities of policing a hard border should it be required. He feared a return to a paramilitary style of policing and how, with his 7,000 policemen, it would be impossible to fulfil such a remit. At the height…

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Trump and the inverted yield curve

Trump and the inverted yield curve

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    President Trump would seem to have an advantage over whoever the Democrats select as his 2020 challenger: since the Second World War, nine elected presidents have sought a second term, and seven of them succeeded. The two exceptions were Jimmy Carter in 1980, and George H. W. Bush in 1992. In both cases, the US economy was performing badly in the lead-up to the election. US voters seem to be indulgent towards their incumbent presidents, but less so…

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Is Trump really just a 17% chance to be impeached?

Is Trump really just a 17% chance to be impeached?

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Graphic – Recent YouGov polling on impeaching Trump Impeachment is a legal procedure, with an indictment delivered by the House and a trial conducted by the Senate. But, assuming that there is a plausible yet arguable case for it, the procedure naturally resolves itself into a political process like any other. To recap, impeachment is defined as the House passing one or more articles of impeachment, by a simple majority vote. The House has 435 voting members, of which 235 are…

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