It’s not exactly gone as Leavers planned, has it? We’ve reached the stage where they’re angrily blaming everyone else for the outcome, while simultaneously trying to claim that it’s glorious. It’s hard not to wince watching them doing the splits. For it turns out that many of the things that Remainers said were true. It wasn’t possible to leave the EU with the exact same benefits. It wasn’t the easiest deal in history. The eagles aren’t coming and the German…
What important news has slipped by barely noticed recently? The planet continues to warm up If you aren’t worried enough about Covid-19, try a side serving of global warming to keep you awake at night. This year should have been relatively cool, given that it was a year with La Nina, the converse of El Nino. But it seems to have been the third warmest on record for the planet. The last decade (2011-2020) was announced as the hottest on…
As we approach the ultra-final round of discussions, it may be useful to set out what the level playing field argument is actually about. Leaving emotions aside, it’s not essentially an argument about muscle-flexing or sovereignty, but a practical choice. In general, I’m a reformist – I like seeing countries take the initiative to make changes that other countries may not be ready for. Otherwise, reforms take much longer, as you have to hang around waiting for everyone to agree….
When dictionaries announce their ‘Word of the Year’ it will undoubtedly be ‘COVID’, ‘Social Distancing’, or something related. But ‘Superforecaster’ is another word which has had a big 2020. Promoted by Dominic Cummings, who gave copies of Philip Tetlock’s ‘Superforecasting’ to all SpAds as required reading, a Superforecaster is someone very skilled in the practice of prediction. While they aren’t flawless, their track record is impressive. I raise this because political punters (and gamblers of all kinds) could learn a…
Few countries have suffered worse from the ravages of HIV/AIDS than South Africa. From 1999-2008, its suffering was made much worse by the irrational beliefs of its president, Thabo Mbeki, who denied in the face of all evidence that HIV caused AIDS and drew up policies accordingly. He appointed a health minister who advocated the use of herbal remedies for treating HIV-related health problems such as garlic, beetroot, and lemon juice. This was not a success. Something like 350,000 people died as a…
Let me begin with an apology to the Gambling Commission. I have often badmouthed them, here and elsewhere, but a long conversation recently with one of their staff has caused me to revise my views. The subject was principally Betfair’s long delay in settling various markets in connection with the recent US Presidential Elections. The Commission cannot intervene in individual disputes but it does hold a brief to ‘regulate commercial gambling in Great Britain in partnership with…
Gallup is reporting this afternoon that President-elect Joe Biden’s favourability rating has risen six percentage points to 55% since the election compared with his final pre-election reading. At the same time, President Donald Trump’s favourability has edged down three points to 42%. Biden’s current rating is the highest it has been since February 2019, two months before he declared his candidacy for president, when it was 56%. Trump’s latest favourability falls short of the highest of his presidency, 49% in April,…
2020 has not been short of challenges. Covid-19, the ensuing economic fall-out and the final stages of Brexit have been playing out. By and large, the government has proven unequal to the challenge. That is not just my opinion, but that of the public at large. Just 34% of the public were satisfied with the government’s handling of Covid-19 in the last YouGov survey on the matter and 52% of the public disapprove of the government’s record to date with just 27% approving….