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What is a level playing field?

What is a level playing field?

As we approach the ultra-final round of discussions, it may be useful to set out what the level playing field argument is actually about. Leaving emotions aside, it’s not essentially an argument about muscle-flexing or sovereignty, but a practical choice. In general, I’m a reformist – I like seeing countries take the initiative to make changes that other countries may not be ready for. Otherwise, reforms take much longer, as you have to hang around waiting for everyone to agree….

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Leaver or Limpet – How long with Johnson lead?

Leaver or Limpet – How long with Johnson lead?

When dictionaries announce their ‘Word of the Year’ it will undoubtedly be ‘COVID’, ‘Social Distancing’, or something related. But ‘Superforecaster’ is another word which has had a big 2020. Promoted by Dominic Cummings, who gave copies of Philip Tetlock’s ‘Superforecasting’ to all SpAds as required reading, a Superforecaster is someone very skilled in the practice of prediction. While they aren’t flawless, their track record is impressive. I raise this because political punters (and gamblers of all kinds) could learn a…

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No Platform For Mad Men. Lockdown Sceptics Are Getting Far Too Much Airtime

No Platform For Mad Men. Lockdown Sceptics Are Getting Far Too Much Airtime

Few countries have suffered worse from the ravages of HIV/AIDS than South Africa. From 1999-2008, its suffering was made much worse by the irrational beliefs of its president, Thabo Mbeki, who denied in the face of all evidence that HIV caused AIDS and drew up policies accordingly. He appointed a health minister who advocated the use of herbal remedies for treating HIV-related health problems such as garlic, beetroot, and lemon juice. This was not a success. Something like 350,000 people died as a…

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BETFAIR, THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, AND THE GAMBLING COMMISSION

BETFAIR, THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, AND THE GAMBLING COMMISSION

Let me begin with an apology to the Gambling Commission.   I have often badmouthed them, here and elsewhere, but a long conversation recently with one of their staff has caused me to revise my views.   The subject was principally Betfair’s long delay in settling various markets in connection with the recent US Presidential Elections.   The Commission cannot intervene in individual disputes but it does hold a brief to ‘regulate commercial gambling in Great Britain in partnership with…

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As Trump struggles to hang on Biden extends his favourability lead over Trump to 9%

As Trump struggles to hang on Biden extends his favourability lead over Trump to 9%

Gallup is reporting this afternoon that President-elect Joe Biden’s favourability rating has risen six percentage points to 55% since the election compared with his final pre-election reading. At the same time, President Donald Trump’s favourability has edged down three points to 42%. Biden’s current rating is the highest it has been since February 2019, two months before he declared his candidacy for president, when it was 56%. Trump’s latest favourability falls short of the highest of his presidency, 49% in April,…

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Would the real Keir Starmer please stand up?

Would the real Keir Starmer please stand up?

2020 has not been short of challenges. Covid-19, the ensuing economic fall-out and the final stages of Brexit have been playing out. By and large, the government has proven unequal to the challenge. That is not just my opinion, but that of the public at large.  Just 34% of the public were satisfied with the government’s handling of Covid-19 in the last YouGov survey on the matter and 52% of the public disapprove of the government’s record to date with just 27% approving….

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Hatchings, Matchings and Dispatchings.

Hatchings, Matchings and Dispatchings.

2020 will be an unlamented year, known for a long time as the year of the coronavirus. Hopefully 2021 will be better, if the various vaccines and Brexit permit, and some resurgence of normal activity returns. Indeed just as the excesses of the roaring Twenties followed the Spanish Flu, we may well see a year of hedonistic excess. I do not wish to dwell long on the “excess deaths”, a subject thrashed over fairly heavily by both amateur and professional…

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In other news

In other news

What else has been happening recently that deserves more attention than it is getting? We don’t need to worry about public sector debt – yet During the Covid era, Britain’s public sector debt has risen at a giddying rate.  Public sector net borrowing is estimated to have been £22.3 billion in October 2020, £10.8 billion more than in October 2019, which is both the highest October borrowing and the sixth-highest borrowing in any month since monthly records began in 1993. …

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