But Brown gets within 3% on the pollster’s forced choice question Regular visitors here will know that it has long been a pet theory of mine that what drives Tory ratings in the opinion polls is the amount of publicity, good or bad, that the leader, David Cameron, is getting. If he’s out of the headlines and bulletins then his party slips – if not his party moves forward. Thus after a week where the main political story has been…
Be Careful What You Ask For One old chestnut that comes up from time to time is that the Conservatives have only won the majority of elections since 1918 because the “progressive consensus†is divided between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Hence, if only proportional representation were introduced in British elections, Labour and the Liberal Democrats could form a more or less permanent administration. It would appear that former Lib Dem Leader, Paddy Ashdown, was convinced that Tony Blair would…
Was the schools row created to keep Gordon off the front pages? Perhaps the most extraordinary feature of this week’s news – Gordon’s first as leader-elect – has been how little coverage there’s been of him and the Labour deputy leadership contest. For the big political story has been about Tory policy on grammar schools and the battles that Cameron has been having with his old guard. Hasn’t the timing of this been a bit too convenient? Could all this…
Is your wager on deputy PM – not deputy leader? A couple of people have emailed to point out that the earlier version of William Hill’s deputy market was not on who would be deputy leader, but who would become deputy prime minister. At the time, nearly a year ago, the two roles were seen as being almost synonymous and they had not really checked the details. But things could change dramatically following the strong reports today that Brown is…
Why’s Labour deficit 6% bigger when the leaders are mentioned As predicted here on Monday there has been a move back to Labour on the general election betting markets in response to the improving poll situation – seen overnight in the May survey for the Guardian. That Labour are now just 2% behind the Tories has seen some movement to Brown’s party on the betting markets – though there has been very light trading. Labour has tightened from 1.54/1 just…
Labour deficit moves to 8% when Gordon’s name is mentioned The first full opinion poll since the Brown “victory” in the Labour contest became certain shows some heartening news for the party. For the top-line figures to the hypothetical question of what people would do if there was a general election tomorrow have, with changes on last month CON 34% (-3): LAB 32% (+2): LD 21% (nc) But the Guardian tomorrow will report that the Tories have an 8% lead…
HenryG reviews the runners and the prices For those still amazed that Brown has been crowned Labour Leader without facing an election, one thing that must be a certainty is that his successor won’t be so privileged. No doubt in the bowels of Westminster some will be plotting their moves to ingratiate themselves with the new leader, others looking to pounce with an alternative agenda should Labour crash at the next election. The current Deputy Leadership contest will no doubt…
It looks like there will be a Betfair “Who’s in – who’s out” market? Further to the article yesterday on new Betfair markets it’s now looking likely that we will be able to trade very soon on who will be in and out of Gordon Brown’s first cabinet. And when we do what odds will be available on Ruth Kelly and Patricia Hewitt holding onto their places after their torrid times yesterday in the Commons? The sketch writers in this…