Do UKIP and the BNP Really Damage the Conservatives? One problem that David Cameron has to contend with, in contrast to Tony Blair in the 1990s, is that disgruntled Conservatives have somewhere to go. Neither UKIP, nor the BNP could be regarded as a serious challenger for political power, yet each party has shown that it can obtain significant votes, in individual constituencies. In 2005, UKIP won 620,000 votes, and saved 35 deposits, and the BNP won 191,000, and saved…
Are we seeing the start of the general election campaign? All the information coming out of the Brown camp before June 27th was that his first target would be to push the Tories from the centre ground by forcing them to the right. If that indeed was the plan then there will be delight within Labour this morning. For the Tory John Redwood policy commission is publishing its findings today and the headline grabbing move is a plan to, as…
Will Labour supporters mess up the Tory election? In what could appear an ill-thought out move during the brash days of Cameron’s leadership the Tories decided that their choice for London mayor should be decided by an open primary in which any London voter could take part. But what sounded like a PR stunt could now be used against the party by its opponents to stop Boris getting on the ballot. For there are reports that Labour supporters are attempting…
Why was the Beeb so quick to apologise? Having spent ten years in my early career as an editor with BBC News it strikes me that the quick apology that has been made for parts of the corporation’s coverage of the Tory competition proposals is something of a watershed and might suggest that Brown’s media honeymoon might be running out of steam. The BBC does not usually react so quickly – especially when the initial source of the complaint was…
Can Huckabee raise the money to build on his Iowa success? This is a picture of the rail road station in Hope, Arkansas – a small town that calls itself a city and has a population of just 10,467. Just about its only claim fame is that it is the birth-place of the Bill Clinton, who, of course, went on to become state governor before running successfully for the White House in 1992 and 1996. Extraordinarily Hope is also the…
How would more devolution affect Labour south of the border? The announcement by Scotland First Minister, the SNP’s Alex Salmond, that there’s to be a “national conversation”, a distinctly new Labour term, on the future governance of Scotland could present a real challenge for Brown. For on the one hand he wants to head off the SNP pressure and might consider more devolution – but how does he do that without the role of Scottish Labour MPs at Westminster becoming…
Was Mitt’s Iowa victory worth $800 a vote? The major event in the campaign for the GOP nomination for next year’s White House was the so-called Ames Straw Poll that took place at the weekend. This is a gathering of Iowa Republicans where voting takes place on which candidate attendees would like to see win the nomination at the Iowa caucus in January – the first of the fifty states to complete its process to decide which to back. Mitt…
Is the Guardian splash a gift to the beleaguered Tories? An extraordinary piece of journalistic digging by the Guardian this morning suggests that since Brown became PM on June 27th his government been able to announce new spending of £39.32 billion pounds and that this flurry of activity has been behind the bounce in the polls. The new spending includes an extra £7.7bn for defence to 2011; £15bn to improve the railways; £4bn extra spending on early years education over…