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So Silvio is back….

So Silvio is back….

Andrea examines the results as Italy moves from Prodi II to Berlusconi III So Silvio is back. Last week-end’s Italian elections saw Berlusconi’s coalition winning by a convincing margin: 9.3% for the Senate and 9.2% for the Chamber of Deputies. The final result is at the high end of figures showed by polls 2 weeks ago. It also guarantees a comfortable majority for Berlusconi at the Senate. During the pre-election discussions, there was some debate on whether he would get…

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Double Carpet on Sunday

Double Carpet on Sunday

A new regular column focusing on the international scene Welcome to what’s planned to be a regular Sunday evening column, partly inspired by Sean Fear’s excellent Friday articles on UK politics. I can’t promise that this column will be quite as regular as Sean’s, but the plan is for it to come out fortnightly if possible and we’ll see how it goes. The “mission statement” for the column will be to focus primarily on international politics, outside the PB mainstays…

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Is Berlusconi set for a third term in Italy?

Is Berlusconi set for a third term in Italy?

“Il Cavaliere” down to 1.3 on Betfair – can Veltroni stop him? Double Carpet looks at Italian politics ahead of the election Italy goes to the polls next Sunday and Monday, and following hot on the heels of the Spanish election, it provides a good “compare and contrast”. Since 1983 there have been only three Prime Ministers in Spain (Gonzalez, Aznar, Zapatero), and indeed only three French Presidents, three German Chancellors, and four occupants each in Downing Street and the…

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Conservatives ahead by 11 with ICM

Conservatives ahead by 11 with ICM

Is it time to start betting on a Conservative majority? Con 43 (+6), Lab 32 (nc), Lib Dem 18 (-3) A poll by ICM in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph gives the Conservatives an 11-point lead, up six since the previous poll in January. The Telegraph notes that such a result could give a 40-seat majority for Cameron under FPTP, but under a putative AV-style system this would be reduced to 325 MPs. On the issue of economic competence, Brown/Darling and Cameron/Osborne…

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Will Indiana Prove To Be Decisive?

Will Indiana Prove To Be Decisive?

Morus looks ahead to the Hoosier state as the Democrat endgame approaches Whilst all eyes are on Pennsylvania on the 22nd April, there are a number of primaries being held within a couple of weeks of that contest which could still yet have an impact on Clinton’s pending decision to fight or concede. Although Obama has recently drawn very close in the PA polls, it would be a massive surprise for Clinton to lose this primary, although the odds suggest…

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Peter the Punter’s take on…

Peter the Punter’s take on…

The Grand National 2008 One popular misconception about this race is that it’s a lottery which serious punters would swerve. In fact, until about ten years ago it was one of the easiest races in which to find value bets and was therefore eagerly anticipated by the greedy hordes of professional backers. This all changed when Senior Handicapper, Phil Smith (no relation), started taking a radical view of the weights allocated to each horse. In essence, he started to show…

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Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Where London Will be Won and Lost One of the striking features of the London Mayoral election of 2004 was just how strongly Ken Livingstone performed in prosperous parts of the Capital, many of which are strongly Conservative in local elections. Boroughs like Croydon, (where the Conservatives had a 9% lead over Labour in the local elections of 2002), Harrow (where they had a 7% lead), Redbridge and Richmond (both gained by the Conservatives in 2002) and most surprising of…

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Will the new Ken revelations have any impact on the race?

Will the new Ken revelations have any impact on the race?

Will this change many votes? The latest twist in the contest for London Mayor are the revelations that Ken Livingstone has had five children by three different women. However, Ken has dismissed claims that the issue will affect his campaign. Responding to a question that some people might be shocked by the revelation, he said: “Clearly, I don’t think anybody in this city is shocked about what consenting adults do.” So will this alter many people’s choices when they cast…

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