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No boundary changes and no AV: EdM is proving to be a lucky LAB leader

No boundary changes and no AV: EdM is proving to be a lucky LAB leader

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Henry G Manson on how the Tories have made GE2015 easier for Ed There is a bit of talk as to whether certain Conservative MP are able to be endorsed by UKIP and stand with two party emblems next to their name on the ballots paper. This is now possible under updated election law. This week Peter Bone MP took to the airwaves arguing for joint Conservative and UKIP candidates to take advantage of this: “There was a tremendous Conservative…

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Local By-Election Preview : May 9th 2013

Local By-Election Preview : May 9th 2013

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After all the excitement of last Thursday, which saw the worst Conservative performance in a set of local elections since 1995 (25% national projected vote share), Labour make no change on their 2010 local election performance (29% national projected vote share), the Liberal Democrats see thirty three years of local election advances wiped out (14% national projected vote share, only 1% higher than their tally in 1980) and with the help of UKIP, the Others “win” the local elections with…

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Local election night on PB: Your guide – Harry Hayfield and your interactive chart to see what happend last time

Local election night on PB: Your guide – Harry Hayfield and your interactive chart to see what happend last time

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Today sees the sternest test for David Cameron out of any local election he has so far had to face. The 2009 local elections were a complete Conservative triumph. Of the 2,492 councillors elected at those elections, 1,494 (or nearly 60%) were Conservative and apart from Bristol, Cornwall, Cumbria, Northumberland and Anglesey, the Conservatives are defending majority control in every single council up for election (which make the pitfalls even more dangerous). At the time of those local elections, the…

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Local By-Election Preview : April 25th 2013 (T -7 days and counting until Locals 2013)

Local By-Election Preview : April 25th 2013 (T -7 days and counting until Locals 2013)

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Norden on Rochdale (Con defence) Last Local Election (2012): Lab 42, Con 13, Lib Dem 5 (Labour overall majority of 24) Last Electoral Cycle (2010 – 2012) Local Elections   2010 Local Elections   2011 Local Elections   2012 Name of party Votes Cast % Share Votes Cast % Share Votes Cast % Share Con 1,927 36% 1,814 57% 1,624 68% Lab 839 16% 846 27% 604 25% Lib Dems 2,240 42% 511 16% 175 7% BNP 319 6% Candidates…

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I’m Harry Hayfield and I do NOT approve this message

I’m Harry Hayfield and I do NOT approve this message

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It’s extremely rare for me to oppose a statement made on PB.com by Mike Smithson but his suggestion that the United Kingdom should have paid political adverts fills me with absolute dread. Why? Well, call it bitter experience but having an interest in elections that use the FPTP method of election, I have seen adverts for political candidates that would make your hair curl from that home of the brave and land of the free, the United States and having…

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Henry G Manson on the LAB effort to take away the Tories most prized northern asset – the N Tyneside mayoralty

Henry G Manson on the LAB effort to take away the Tories most prized northern asset – the N Tyneside mayoralty

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EdM on ferry crossing the Tyne to support campaign to win back for LAB the North Tyneside mayoralty from the Tories twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 19, 2013 Henry G Manson on an intriguing battle There has been some discussion this week on the strength of didn’t women MPs in the Conservative Party and in Labour with some wondering if there will be another ‘Margaret’ in the near future. I can’t spot many, although a couple of years ago…

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With just two weeks to go before the biggest sets of elections of 2013 – tonight’s local by-election

With just two weeks to go before the biggest sets of elections of 2013 – tonight’s local by-election

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Harry Hayfield with his weekly preview Angmering on Arun (Con Defence) Last Local Election (2011): Con 48, Lib Dem 4, Lab 3, Ind 1 (Conservative majority of 40) Last Local Election (2011): Con 1520, 1404, 1324 (Average: 39%) Lib Dem 550 (16%) Lab 538 (15%) Ind 524 (15%) UKIP 517 (15%) Candidates duly nominated: Jamie Bennett (Lib Dem), Andy Cooper (Con), Carly Goodwin (Lab) It is now just over a month since the Liberal Democrats inflicted what can only be…

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Which election will we have in 2015? Election 1979 or Election 1997?

Which election will we have in 2015? Election 1979 or Election 1997?

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Harry Hayfield ahead of today’s BBC coverage Throughout Saturday BBC Parliament will be replaying the 1979 general election programme, as a build up to the funeral of Baroness Thatcher on Wednesday. The 1979 election is, to date, the only general election in modern electoral history (since 1950) to have been triggered by a vote of no confidence in the government and the polling (done by Gallup) makes for interesting reading for the Liberal Democrats. March 1977 saw the Labour government…

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