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Liverpool, Wavertree : A Historical Tale of Caution

Liverpool, Wavertree : A Historical Tale of Caution

Constituency splits like this could make a LAB majority that bit more challenging http://t.co/ZnJKohMyZh pic.twitter.com/jzEreXoGgU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 30, 2013 Harry Hayfield looks back at “breakaway” candidates Independents have had a remarkably successful run in the last few general elections. Despite the fact that both Dai Davies (Ind, Blaenau Gwent) and Dr. Richard Taylor (Health Concern, Wyre Forest) lost their seats at the last election, they have been the latest in a long line of Independents who have managed…

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The Coalition has left it too late to benefit from infrastructure

The Coalition has left it too late to benefit from infrastructure

George Osborne in high-vis jacket pic.twitter.com/mDuo5lq5gH — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 28, 2013 Henry G Manson on the week’s big political news This week Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander trumpeted a raft of infrastructure investments totalling £100bn. There are some reasons to question with the overall figure. As the Independent says ‘some of the projects, in the best tradition of political spin, had already been announced. Others, it turned out, may never be built at all. But a…

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Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview

Billericay East on Basildon (Con Defence) Last Local Election (2012): Con 25, Lab 15, Lib Dem 2 (Conservative majority of 8) Current Electoral Cycle Election Results Local Elections   2010 Local Elections   2011 Local Elections   2012 Votes Cast % Share Votes Cast % Share Votes Cast % Share Conservatives 4,084 61% 2,626 65% 1,502 58% Labour 737 11% 567 14% 383 15% Liberal Democrats 1,360 20% 528 13% 316 12% UKIP 308 5% 346 9% 409 16% BNP…

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Harry Hayfield’s guide to the Aberdeen, Donside Scottish Parliamentary By-Election

Harry Hayfield’s guide to the Aberdeen, Donside Scottish Parliamentary By-Election

< Maps showing the area that Aberdeen, Donside covers (and how it fits into the Westminster Parliament) Aberdeen, Donside is only the seventh constituency by-election to the Scottish Parliament since it was re-founded back in 1999 and in that time only one seat (Ayr in 2000) has changed hands. Aberdeen, Donside itself was only created for the last elections to the Scottish Parliament and is made up of the vast chunk of the Aberdeen North Westminster constituency and a piece...

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Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview

Weaste and Seedley on Salford (Lab Defence) Last Election Result (2012): Lab 52, Con 8 (Labour majority of 44) Salford is the epitome of a Labour heartland electing a Labour majority even in the most dire electoral positions for Labour (clearly demonstrated in 2008 when Labour’s overall majority fell to 12) but which since the general election has (as many other Labour areas have done) become a virtual one party state. Therefore we can say that Labour should hold it…

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Going for a 5-year fixed term might have been mistake

Going for a 5-year fixed term might have been mistake

Henry G Manson on the impact of waiting till May 2015 I’m not a big fan of fixed terms, but what stuck me at the start of the Coalition was how little debate there was about the length of fixed term that was being proposed. The majority of fixed term governments are run on a 4 year cycle, yet the Coalition were determined to lock in 5 years of government. This in itself will pose challenges for all parties. From…

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Local By-Election Preview: June 13th 2013

Local By-Election Preview: June 13th 2013

Liversedge and Gomersal on Kirklees (Con Defence) Last Local Elections (2012): Lab 32, Con 18, Lib Dem 10, Green 5, Others 4 (No Overall Control, Lab short by 3) Ward Results in current electoral cycle Local Elections   2010 Local Elections   2011 Local Elections   2012 Party Votes Cast % Share Votes Cast % Share Votes Cast % Share Conservatives 3,667 42% 2,467 47% 2,021 49% Labour 2,284 26% 2,189 42% 1,577 38% Liberal Democrats 1,548 18% 290 6%…

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Local By-Election Preview : June 6th 2013

Local By-Election Preview : June 6th 2013

Walkergate on Newcastle upon Tyne (Lab Defence) Last Local Elections (2012): Lab 51, Lib Dem 26, Ind 1 (Lab majority of 24) Ward Results 2010 – 2012 Local Elections   2010 Local Elections   2011 Local Elections   2012 Party Votes Cast % Share Votes Cast % Share Votes Cast % Share Conservatives 346 8% 119 4% 149 5% Labour 2,009 46% 1,682 50% 1,912 68% Liberal Democrats 1,706 39% 1,580 47% 646 23% BNP 303 7% Communists 102 4%…

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