Browsed by
Author: Editor

Let’s end this lazy assumption that UKIP voters are just Tories on holiday

Let’s end this lazy assumption that UKIP voters are just Tories on holiday

Comments 0 Comment

The numbers show that this is simply not the case You read and see this all the time both inside the Westminster bubble and out of it. Ukip voters, so the pervasive narrative goes, are simply ex-CON voters who can, if Lynton Crosby plays his cards properly, be seduced back into the fold thus providing the blues with the platform to secure an overall majority next May. Thus the following is a statement that many might find hard to comprehend…

Read More Read More

The Populus “Mondays good for LAB, Fridays for CON” sequence finally comes to an end

The Populus “Mondays good for LAB, Fridays for CON” sequence finally comes to an end

Comments 0 Comment

It had to happen at some stage, I suppose, but today’s Populus online LAB lead of 6% brings to an end an extraordinary polling sequence – that those polls published on Mondays tended to show movement towards Labour while those coming out on Fridays moved back towards the Tories. Quite why this is hard to say. Last month Anthony Wells at UKPR ran the numbers through his computer and found that since this polling series was established in July 2013…

Read More Read More

Local By-Election Preview: August 21st 2014

Local By-Election Preview: August 21st 2014

Comments 0 Comment

Wroxham on Broadland (Lib Dem defence) Result of last election to council (2011): Conservatives 34, Liberal Democrats 11, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 21) Result of last election in ward (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Liberal Democrats 985, 829 Conservatives 741, 537 Labour 227 Greens 197 Candidates duly nominated: Malcolm Kemp (Lab), Malcolm Springall (Lib Dem), Fran Whymark (Con) Broadland, the council that seperates the urbanness of Norwich from the coastal Norfolk North, has been a right old Conservative heartland from…

Read More Read More

If the swing-back theorists are right the proportion of 2010 LD who’ve switched to LAB will decline

If the swing-back theorists are right the proportion of 2010 LD who’ve switched to LAB will decline

Comments 0 Comment

There’s absolutely no sign of that happening yet The chart shows the monthly average proportion of all 2010 LDs in the twice-weekly Populus polls since the series started in July 2013. So far, as the chart shows, this group of switchers (“Labour’s electoral clutch” as they’ve been described) are remaining solid and are propping up the red team’s poll ratings. In yesterday’s Ashcroft polling of the marginals the level of switching was higher than in national polls and, interestingly, it…

Read More Read More

Take LAB majority odds at 2-1 or longer – this is now a great value bet

Take LAB majority odds at 2-1 or longer – this is now a great value bet

Comments 0 Comment

Yesterday’s batch of Lord Ashcroft polls of key CON-LAB marginals is further evidence that the betting price on CON majority is far too tight and that on a LAB one too long. It is very hard looking at all the voter dynamics to make any case whatsoever for a CON majority. Time is passing quickly and there’s nothing at all from the seats that will decide this election that the Tories are going to better their 2010 performance. Rather it…

Read More Read More

CON hopes that UKIP returners will eventually swing their way are undermined by this Lord Ashcroft finding

CON hopes that UKIP returners will eventually swing their way are undermined by this Lord Ashcroft finding

Comments 0 Comment

CON government just 2% ahead of LAB one amongst UKIP voters After the July round of Ashcroft marginals polling I highlighted the “preferred GE2015 outcome” polling which surprisingly had a CON government only 1% ahead of a LAB one. Well another month and data from different group of CON held marginals to look at and we find almost the same pattern – only the CON government preferred outcome lead is 2% and not 1%. What strikes me is that as…

Read More Read More

LAB doing better against the Tories in key marginals than in national polling

LAB doing better against the Tories in key marginals than in national polling

Comments 0 Comment

CON being killed in the marginals by UKIP & LD-LAB switching @LordAshcroft headline on his latest round of marginals polling http://t.co/AoSsiFHXH7 sums it up. pic.twitter.com/fzkCivDkwa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 20, 2014 On the basis of today's round of @LordAshcroft polls LAB is doing better in the marginals and is heading for working majority — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 20, 2014 LAB taking a third of all 2010 LD voters in latest batch of LAB-CON marginals polled by @LordAshcroft much…

Read More Read More

Salmond says he’s ready to put his job on the line and even disband the SNP to help secure a YES vote

Salmond says he’s ready to put his job on the line and even disband the SNP to help secure a YES vote

Comments 0 Comment

Salmond says he'd step down as SNP leader if he thought that would help YES http://t.co/XRpXCGiZil pic.twitter.com/Ojdy5roX6A — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 20, 2014 Just ten days before the first postal ballots arrive In the wake of polling suggesting that Alex Salmond himself might be hurting the YES case it has been made known that the First Minister is saying publicly that if the price of winning independence is his job then he’s ready to step aside. This comes after…

Read More Read More