As we all await the bong at 10:00 PM, I’ve prepped up a few spreadsheets that will try and sort the wheat from the chaff. Sheet 1 This is the most important, and should collate the early results, click here At about 2:30, move onto sheet 2 The final sheet is here Right now these this has every constituency, and is the most likely to fall over. The first two sheets are attempting to do less so with a fair…
INTRODUCTION Some of you may remember the “Chronicle of a Bet Foretold” PB series in 2019. It was meant to be a cumulative series but real-life intruded and it fizzled out. It covers my real-life betting and seeing as I have now placed bets on UKGE2024 you’ll forgive me if I resurrect it for the latest instalment. It is not, unfortunately, a happy tale. BETTING SHOPS Most people on PB bet online. They set up accounts and select from a…
I hope you all enjoyed Part One. Within this Article, we will analyse and predict which candidate and which party can become victorious in the upcoming Westminster General Election. Belfast East : There were only three runners within the 2019 General Election. Naomi Long [APNI] fell just short of taking the seat by just over 1,000 votes. This year, there are 7 candidates. This seat is definitely one of the most exciting and intriguing seats within Northern Ireland. Sinn Féin have…
With the Westminster General Election upcoming next month [July], We are all wondering which seats will be close and which constituencies are foregone conclusions. Within Part 1, I will analyse and predict the final standings for the following areas : Belfast South, Belfast West, East Derry / Londonderry, Foyle, Mid Ulster, Newry & Armagh, North Antrim, Upper Bann & West Tyrone. Belfast South : Kate Nicholl [Alliance] is one of the most interesting candidates in this election. The former Lord Mayor is highly popular and…
What unites: At first glance, not much. But my contention is that if you dig a little deeper they are all linked by excessive commodification as a result of neo-liberal policies pursued at least since Reagan and Thatcher. The result of these neo-liberal policies? An inability to live well and prosper even in the midst of national and global economies that are richer than ever. We can learn from each of these groups: 1. Reform voters: some at least recognise…
We are now less than 2 weeks to go to the election and postal ballots have already gone out. It is an unusual election, but surely it is the case that every election has unique aspects. When speculating on results, voter turnout may be a key issue. I see this as two issues really. The first is the overall turnout, and second is the turnout by different demographic groups. Will it be the young or the old? C2DE or ABC1?…
On the 4th May 1471 the Yorkist forces of Edward IV defeated the Lancastrian Army of Edward, Prince of Westminster in one of the most decisive battles of the Wars Of The Roses. Although slightly outnumbered, the success of the White Rose gang was no great surprise and it is likely winning punters got little better than evens on their wagers. Shrewd punters on the forthcoming election battle of Tewkesbury on July 4th 2024 may however do slightly better, and…
So for a bit of fun, I decided to look at the Survation MRP polling conducted between 31st May and 13th June. This showed that all but 72 Tory MPs would lose their seats and I wondered what the make up of the Tory party would look like after the election if this prediction came true. Below are listed the 72 MPs who Survation suggest will survive the Great Cull of 2024. They are listed from largest lead to smallest…