politicalbetting.com

Might it be the shortest-lived ministry since Wellington? As one of pbc’s more regular posters has reminded us more than once, there doesn’t need to be much slippage in the Tory lead to turn the current projected overall majority into minority territory and while it remains odds-on with all bookies that the Conservatives will win outright, the best odds on No Overall Majority are just 11/4 with Ladbrokes. Let’s suppose for the moment that the Conservatives win the largest number of…

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Andy Welsh Flickr How will the decade just beginning end? The turning of the decades is an opportune time to lift our gaze from the transient ephemera of polls, speeches and even by-elections to the deeper questions of where politics is headed over the next ten years and what are the drivers of that change. However, before looking forward, a brief glance back. The first decade of the 21st century has not been a good one for politics or politicians….

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  To what extent is HMG still HM’s Government? Two stories in the media during the week involved Prince Charles and politics. In one, he was criticised for lobbying ministers on policy matters; in the other, he addressed the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, giving his now-familiar appeal for greater sustainability in the use of the planet’s natural resources. The contrast with his mother, who through a reign of over fifty years has barely given an opinion on anything vaguely controversial,…

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Will this be Labour’s last Set-Piece before Polling Day? The pre-Budget Report is when the government is meant to set out its spending plans for the year, although it’s more and more taken on the aspect of a mini-budget in its own right. In addition to the economic predictions and expenditure figures, last year’s PBR cut VAT, increased duty on alcohol, tobacco and petrol, and scheduled in increases in Income Tax and National Insurance. If today’s PBR is as active…

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Will the 1990s NuLab stars bring back the magic? The career path is well worn: a group has striking success but over the years, personality clashes emerge, they feel themselves getting stale and want a change or believe themselves constrained by the band and want to strike out on a solo career. The fans however aren’t so keen and the public’s initial interest fades. Before long, they’ve been eclipsed by newer and fresher faces. That might be the end of…

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