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Author: David Herdson

Eastleigh – the David Herdson view

Eastleigh – the David Herdson view

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twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 1, 2013 Who will the UKIP prostest vote unwind to, and how far Nick Clegg and Tim Farron have understandably hailed the Lib Dems’ first by-election win in over seven years as “stunning” and “staggering” respectively – after all, their party has not had much to celebrate electorally since 2010 and a win is a win – but Eastleigh was not a great success for any of the major parties. The Tories had the…

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David Herdson: Osborne – time to go?

David Herdson: Osborne – time to go?

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You can get 3/1 with PaddyPower that Osborne will not be Chancellor by end of year. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2013 Is it three strikes and out? In practical terms, the loss of the UK’s triple-A credit rating with one of the three main agencies is unlikely to have much impact. France and the USA have both been through the same process without undue trauma, and besides, there’s enough information and interest in the sovereign debt of…

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Will Welsh Secretary David Jones be the next to go?

Will Welsh Secretary David Jones be the next to go?

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David Jones, Welsh Secretary at centre of gay marriage row, now 6/1 FAV for next Cabinet exit bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2013 David Herdson assesses his survival chances The Secretaries of State for Wales is amongst the most invisible of cabinet ministers. Partly that’s because the London media never gives as much attention to events outside the capital as within it but mainly it’s because he doesn’t have much of a job to do with the…

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David Herdson on the great Hillary #WH2016 guessing game

David Herdson on the great Hillary #WH2016 guessing game

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Is Hillary Clinton going to run in #WH2016?On Betfair she’s 5/2 favourite to get nomination even though she’ll be 69 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2013 Would this be a contest too far or success at last? After twenty years at or near the centre of US political life, and four years of Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton can now finally put her feet up and enjoy retirement. Or she can start seriously planning the presidential campaign everyone’s…

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Davd Herdson: Cameron must be clear that he might vote No

Davd Herdson: Cameron must be clear that he might vote No

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David Herdson says that Cameron cannot go on avoiding the key EU questions www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=55937 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2013 He can’t go on dodging the question? David Cameron’s speech on the UK’s future relationship with the EU has certainly set the political agenda for the week. Almost as soon as he made it, however, two questions were asked that will dog him if he continues to answer as he did at the time: what specifically do you…

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David Herdson asks: Is the Euro-crisis over?

David Herdson asks: Is the Euro-crisis over?

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And if so, where does that leave Cameron’s big speech? For something that neither starts nor ends, an economic crisis can be a pretty potent thing. Or to refine that assertion, it’s obvious when the crisis is in full swing but it’s impossible to say when it’s started or when it’s ended; they just emerge or build, and decline or fade. This time last year, there was huge doubt over whether Greece would default, whether Italy or Spain would need…

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Has Rangers Football Club just made Alex Salmonds job harder?

Has Rangers Football Club just made Alex Salmonds job harder?

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BBC news What would pulling out do to the independence debate? Identity is one of the most potent forces in politics; the sense of who we are individually and collectively. That’s why the unusually strongly-worded statement from Rangers’ chief executive this week in response to the football authorities’ proposal there potentially brings two of the stronger identities into conflict: those of nationality and football club support. The threat from Rangers to leave if a restructure leaves them in the bottom…

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Can the country get used to a long and slow squeeze?

Can the country get used to a long and slow squeeze?

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David Herdson on the politics of austerity Experts and others making New Year predictions are as much a tradition at the turning of the year as fireworks, soon-to-be-broken resolutions and loud but not entirely coherent renderings of Auld Lang Syne. Except where change – or at least, the clear opportunity for change – is scheduled, these predictions inevitably default to ‘much the same as last year’, and it’s almost certainly on that basis that both the government and opposition will…

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