As I write this it feels like that Sir Keir Starmer is more screwed than Bonnie Blue and that we are approaching the end of his premiership soon but history suggests otherwise.

This week (Wednesday in fact) is the fifty-first anniversary of Margaret Thatcher becoming Conservative Party leader, one thing that stands out when studying and betting on leadership elections, the Conservative Pary ‘is an absolute monarchy moderated by regicide’ whereas Labour also has a North Koreanesque loyalty to the dear leader.

As we can see in the above graph in the last fifty-two years the Conservative Party has successfully ousted a leader six times whereas in the same time Labour have successfully ousted any leader, even if you think Tony Blair was ousted, that’s still six to one in the Conservative Party’s favour.

Take January, every poll conducted wholly in January, not a single poll had the Conservative Party polling higher than their 2024 nadir and the majority of the polls had the Conservatives polling in the teens which is indicative of the Conservatives getting smashed in every election held on the 7th of May.

That’s why I think punters should consider that Kemi Badenoch’s leadership might end before Sir Keir Starmer’s, if Starmer goes it might be of his own volition.

TSE