Republicans did not lose the TX SD-9 runoff because of low GOP turnout: they lost because almost all of the independents and some of the Republicans voted Dem.
Of those who voted in the TX SD-9 runoff, 50%+ were GOP primary voters or at GOP HH; only 35% were Dems or at Dem HH pic.twitter.com/osPAhm3nS4
Was turnout lower than the first round? Yes–~95k votes as opposed to ~119k votes, and probably less than a third what we will see that fall. And the fall electorate IS projected to be at least as GOP as this electorate. But with more independents & independents are the problem
Rep. Pete Sessions on Republicans losing a special election in a red part of Texas: "The success of a rain dance has a lot to do with timing. What happened is there was a huge snow storm, ice storm really that hit north Texas and central Texas." pic.twitter.com/PBzp414MZp