You should always check the wording of your bets
The online wager platform Polymarket has angered some gamblers by declaring it will not settle millions of dollars’ worth of bets on a US invasion of Venezuela, arguing that the capture of the then president, Nicolás Maduro, does not qualify.
Before Donald Trump’s forces seized Maduro on Saturday morning, some traders appeared to have anticipated the shock move by placing bets on “prediction markets”.
These are gambling platforms that allow individuals to wager on a range of markets that have been created by the host website. They are typically binary bets, punting on yes/no or higher/lower outcomes.
Last Friday an anonymous trader on Polymarket appeared to invest $30,000 (£22,343) on the market: Maduro out by 31 January 2026. After Maduro’s capture was announced on Saturday morning, the trader seemed to have made profits of $436,759.61.
After Polymarket clarified that the seizure of Maduro did not qualify for a winning bet, the odds of an invasion before the end of January crashed to below 5%.
Traders have placed more than $10.5m on bets of an invasion this year, with the majority on a 31 January deadline. The remainder have put money on contracts for the end of March and December. Some traders have bet tens of thousands of dollars on the question.
As somebody who has made a career out of epistemological exactitudes this sort of thing appeals to me but it should also remind punters that you should always check the terms of the bet, sometimes the most profitable act is not to bet because of the terms.
TSE